Chances continue to grow that two new storms could form in the Atlantic in the next few days, but neither pose a likely threat to Florida or most of the Caribbean anytime soon.
The National Hurricane Center also lowered the chances that a third disturbance, which it marked for the first time on Thursday morning, could form to zero.
That leaves two in the busy Atlantic. The closest one, as of the 8 a.m. Friday update, has risen to an 80% chance of formation in the next two days and a 90% chance in the next seven.
Forecasters said this system is very likely to grow into a tropical depression or storm Friday or Saturday, but long-range models have continued to suggest for days that its track will keep it far from the Caribbean and east coast.
Meteorologists said the cold front that brought much-welcomed cool temperatures to most of the U.S. — expect South Florida — on Friday will help steer the system out to sea, a similar path to Hurricane Erin but farther from U.S. shores. Bermuda could be in its path, but it’s too early to know for sure.
The second disturbance, nearer to Africa, also saw a jump in its development chances. As of 8 a.m. Friday, this tropical wave had a 40% chance of forming in the next two days and a 50% chance of strengthening in the next seven days.
Forecasters said the window of good conditions for this system to form is pretty small, and it’s unclear if the tropical wave will be able to take advantage of it or if it will dissolve over the next few days.
“While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday,” the hurricane center wrote. “The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week.”
Some of the longer-range models do see the storm surviving the rough conditions and take it low across the Caribbean, but they’re far less confident of this system than they are about the other disturbance’s northern curved track.
The next storm name on the list is Fernand.
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