As Paul Biya set to win, what’s at stake?

Cameroon will hold presidential elections on Sunday, October 12, with the vote expected to go in favour of Africa’s second-longest-serving leader, Paul Biya, 92, who is seeking an eighth term.

The cocoa and oil-producing Central African country has been beset by challenges in recent years, including the rising cost of food, high rate of youth unemployment, armed attacks in the far north and a secessionist conflict in the country’s southern Anglophone regions.

Some 8.2 million people aged 20 and above are eligible to vote, although voter apathy is on the rise. Many people question the point of voting in a system they believe is rigged in favour of the governing party.

While opposition candidates are mounting challenges to Biya, who has held power since 1982, analysts say the president is likely to extend his rule for another seven years, and possibly rule until he is 100 years old.

Cameroon’s demographic is young, with about 60 percent of the 30 million population under the age of 25. More than half of the country has never known a president other than Biya.

French and English are the national languages. Yaounde is the Cameroonian capital, while coastal Douala is the largest city and main seaport.

Here’s what to know about the elections and Biya’s rule:

Who is running?

There are 12 presidential candidates. The winner requires a simple majority to win the election. Notable candidates include:

• Paul Biya – The 92-year-old is the candidate most expected to win. He has been president since 1982, and was prime minister prior to that. He is the leader of the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (RDPC), which enjoys the strongest support from voters across the country. His biggest rival, Maurice Kamto, who won 14 percent of the vote in the 2018 elections, has been barred from running, as a splinter group from the Manidem party in his alliance had already registered a candidate.

• Akere Muna –  A barrister, 73-year-old Muna is running as the candidate for the Univers Party. He is a technocrat and has held senior positions at the African Development Bank and Transparency International. He attempted to run in the 2018 elections, but later withdrew his candidacy and instead joined forces with Kamto under the Cameroon Renaissance Party. Muna, nicknamed “Mr Clean” for his perceived transparency, is promising to end corruption and put a stop to the Anglophone crisis.

• Cabral Libii – Journalist Libii, 45, is running as a candidate for the Cameroon Party for National Reconciliation (PCRN). He has also promised to target corruption.

• Joshua Osih – The 56-year-old Anglophone politician is running for the Social Democratic Front party. Osih is campaigning to end the violence in the region and to “liberate” Cameroon from Biya.

• Hermine Patricia Toimaino Ndam Njoya – A longtime parliamentarian and the mayor of Foumban, 56-year-old Njoya is only the third woman ever to run in a Cameroonian presidential election. She is the candidate for the Democratic Union of Cameroon party.

• Bello Bouba Maigari – The 78-year-old candidate for the National Union for Democracy and Progress (UNDP) is from the Far North region, which is plagued by violence and attacks by the armed group, Boko Haram. He was previously in Biya’s government for a long time, but resigned as tourism minister a few months ago.

• Issa Tchiroma Bakary –  Another member of the old guard, the 76-year-old is running as a candidate for the Front for the National Salvation of Cameroon. He was the employment minister between 2019 and June this year, but is now promising to deliver change. He has traversed Cameroon in energetic canvassing campaigns, promising to end economic stagnation and security crises.

What is Biya’s legacy?

Under Biya’s rule, Cameroon has struggled with myriad challenges, including chronic corruption and resulting poor economic growth, despite being rich in resources such as oil and cocoa.

The president, who has managed to clinch landslide wins in heavily contested elections held every seven years, is renowned for his absenteeism, as he reportedly spends extended periods away from the country. He and his entourage are often away, on private or medical treatment trips to Switzerland, with a media investigation in 2018 finding that Biya had spent an estimated 1,645 days (nearly four and a half years) in the European country – excluding official visits – since being in power.

Manu Lekunze, a lecturer in international relations at Aberdeen University, told Al Jazeera that Biya has managed to hold onto power for so long through tactical control of his own party – by using a divide-and-rule approach – as well as within opposition camps to discourage any major challengers.

Biya has also managed to cement complete support from the military to avoid any risk of a coup, Lekunze said, and uses state security apparatuses to crack down on dissent or protests.

Cameroon’s feared gendarmerie responded forcefully to 2016 protests by lawyers and other professionals in the southern Anglophone regions, which were protesting against a lack of opportunities for English speakers. However, the violent response spurred a secessionist conflict in the region that is continuing, and has seen hundreds killed and 638,000 displaced, according to a Human Rights Watch report in 2024.

“He believes he is going to rule for life,” Lekunze said, adding that Biya has the support of leaders of several ethnic groups, combined with allegiance from his own Beti-Sawa majority.

Biya made his first and possibly only appearance in the election campaign on Wednesday this week, when he appeared in the Far North region, where the emergence of two new candidates appears to be splitting his usually comfortable base.

Under Biya, opposition politicians have frequently accused electoral authorities of colluding with the president to rig elections. In 2008, parliament voted to remove the limit on the number of terms a president may serve.

Analysts say his absolute hold on power could lead to instability when he eventually goes.

“There are tensions within his party around who will be president next, and there are also increasing ethnic tensions,” Lekunze said, referring to how ethnic discourse has heightened differences in the election campaign. “That’s a recipe for political instability,” he added.

What are the key issues for this election?

Inflation

On paper, the World Bank said gross domestic product was projected to grow by 3.5 percent to 3.9 percent in 2025, up from 3.5 percent in 2024, due to higher cocoa prices globally, higher cotton production and improved electricity for businesses.

However, analysts say government mismanagement and corruption are driving stagnation in the country’s economy.

Cameroonians complain bitterly about high food and fuel prices, especially since the COVID-19-induced recession.

High transport costs from food-producing regions, as well as conflict, have disrupted supply chains and fuelled inflation.

According to the World Bank, poverty reduction has stagnated in the past 20 years, with 23 percent of the population now living in extreme poverty.

Jobs

While the official unemployment rate is low at 3.8 percent, according to the World Bank, many young people say they are struggling to find jobs.

Insecurity and conflict

Since 2015, armed attacks by Boko Haram have become more and more frequent in the Far North region of the country.

Alongside this, there have been nine years of secessionist conflict in the two Anglophone regions of Northwest and Southwest Cameroon.

In the affected regions, more than one million people were displaced in August, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET).

Cameroon is also a destination country for refugees fleeing crises in Nigeria and the Central African Republic.