A surge in violent crime looks set to dominate presidential elections Sunday in Chile, where the far-right is riding high with promises to crack down on transnational gangs and carry out mass migrant deportations.
A sharp increase in murders, kidnappings and drug trafficking over the past decade has sown terror in one of Latin America’s safest nations, causing a right-ward lurch after nearly four years of center-left rule.
“What I want from the next president is more of an iron fist,” ‘mano dura’ in Spanish, said Hernan Gonzalez, a 28-year-old educator for juvenile offenders in the northern city of Iquique, accusing migrant “hordes” of driving “trafficking, crime and juvenile drug use.”
The main left-wing candidate, Jeannette Jara, is a communist, who is leading polls for the first round, ahead of far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast, the runner-up four years ago.
But 51-year-old Jara faces an uphill battle to overcome strong resistance to communism in one of Latin America’s most pro-business economies.
Polls show Jara being defeated by either Kast, uber-right former YouTuber Johannes Kaiser, or conservative ex-mayor Evelyn Matthei, if, as expected, the election goes to a second round on December 14.
The vote is seen as a litmus test for the future of South America’s left, which has been sent packing in Argentina and Bolivia and faces a stiff challenge in Colombian and Brazilian elections next year.
Guillaume Long, a senior fellow at the US Center for Economic Policy and Research and former foreign minister of Ecuador, said a win for the far-right “would have a big impact on Latin American politics.”
“I think you would see Chile playing a very aggressive role internationally, probably in close alliance with both (Argentine President Javier) Milei and Trump,” he told AFP.
– Venezuelan gangs sow fear –
Four years ago, former student leader Gabriel Boric was elected Chilean president on a promise to establish a welfare state and draft a new constitution to replace a charter dating to the 1973-1990 military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet
But a spike in violent crime in the past decade, blamed on the spread to once tranquil Chile of organized crime gangs from Venezuela, Peru and other countries, has put those issues on the back burner.
Kast, a 59-year-old ultraconservative father of nine and Pinochet fan believes the stars are aligned in his favor this time.
Many voters in Chile back his proposal to bring back strongman rule, pointing to El Salvador’s gang-busting President Nayib Bukele as a model for restoring order.
“Those who will be afraid in the future are narcotraffickers, organized crime and terrorists,” Kast assured Monday in the final candidates’ TV debate.
– Migrant deportations –
Kast has been outflanked on his right by Kaiser, who made his name during the pandemic with anti-migration, misogynistic rants on YouTube.
The burly 49-year-old MP, a free-market radical, has gained ground in the final weeks of the campaign with his shoot-first-ask-questions-later approach to criminals.
Inspired by President Donald Trump, he has also proposed to expel undocumented migrants with criminal records to El Salvador’s notorious CECOT jail.
Kast, meanwhile, has ordered the country’s estimated 330,000 undocumented migrants, mostly Venezuelans fleeing their country’s economic meltdown, to self-deport or be thrown out of the country.
The son of a soldier in Hitler’s Nazi army has, however, played it safe on the identity issues that led to his downfall in 2021, when he threatened to repeal Chileans’ already very limited rights to abortion.
– Working-class hero –
Jara is the only leading candidate who does not have German roots.
The 51-year-old was the engine behind several reforms of the Boric era, including a decrease in the working week from 45 hours to 40 hours, an increase in the mininum wage and pension reforms.
She has downplayed her communist roots on the campaign trail and promised an unwavering hand on crime while ruling out any democratic rollback.
“I know the damage drugs cause,” she told reporters, citing her experience growing up in a working-class neighborhood in Santiago.
“We are all concerned about insecurity but it’s not my only fear,” said Javiera Silva, a 25-year-old Santiago designer, adding she would vote for Jara to “prevent a loss of (human) rights.”
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