The widening rift between the U.S. and a coalition of European and Arab countries over Israel will be on full display next week during the United Nations General Assembly, where a growing number of nations are bucking the Trump administration to recognize a Palestinian state.
But the diplomatic gambit is highlighting the limited options available to countries that want to break with Washington on Israel. It also shows the delicate balancing act some are doing to express their displeasure with Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war while staying in the Trump administration’s good graces.
French President Emmanuel Macron is holding a meeting Monday on the sidelines of the world body’s annual gathering to recognize a Palestinian state, which at least six countries have committed to doing: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Malta, Portugal and the United Kingdom.
Others, like Germany, are expected to attend in support of a two-state solution — the creation of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel — but not join the declaration.
“We need to push back against what Israel is doing; we need to show an alternative vision,” said a European diplomat familiar with the discussions. “But the French underestimate to what extent it irritates the Trump administration.”
The diplomat was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic, as were a number of others interviewed.
Paris has offered few public details about the event, but has said it will include some countries’ outright recognition of a Palestinian state and pledges by others toward implementing it as part of a two-state solution to the conflict.
Many of the governments participating in the push are responding to domestic pressure to get more critical of Israel, especially as Israel has taken increasingly aggressive measures including striking Hamas negotiators in Qatar, launching a fresh assault on Gaza City and blocking aid to the point that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are facing famine. Israel denies pursuing policies to starve the enclave and rejects international bodies’ conclusion that famine exists there.
But those governments are also aware that the Trump administration continues to back Israel’s war: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week in Qatar that Israel “may not have a choice but to militarily defeat” Hamas.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the official co-host of Monday’s meeting, is not expected to show up in person despite a push by Macron to do so. And many of the participating countries are wary of sparking significant pushback from President Donald Trump.
The United Kingdom is expected to announce its recognition Sunday before a formal declaration Monday, according to two people familiar with the plan.
And yet, the U.K. is keeping its attendance at Monday’s summit low key. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is not currently expected to attend the U.N. General Assembly himself. Instead, Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy and new Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will take part.
The conference falls the week before the U.K. Labour Party gathers for its annual conference, a moment of political soul-searching when all eyes will be on the beleaguered Starmer.
“If we have recognition, that’s something to take [to the conference],” said one senior U.K. government adviser, who predicted the issue could still present a “shit storm” for the prime minister at the hands of his own party in the absence of any ceasefire.
On Trump’s visit to the U.K. this week, discussions about Gaza focused on humanitarian aid and skirted around recognition, according to British officials.
At a joint press conference Thursday, Trump and Starmer placed different emphases on their response to the conflict. Starmer stressed that “we are working together to end the humanitarian catastrophe in the Middle East, get the aid in, free the hostages,” while Trump spoke only about the need to free remaining hostages. The U.S. president added that the question of recognition represented “one of our few disagreements.”
Germany’s foreign minister will attend the summit, but the country won’t recognize a Palestinian state, owing to its more complicated position given its history with Israel after World War II. German officials also fear the fallout of a confrontation with Trump.
“The U.S. remains an indispensable partner for Europe when it comes, for example, to supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s war of aggression and, in the long term, to securing security guarantees,” said Peter Beyer, member of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag and rapporteur for transatlantic affairs.
The German Foreign Office emphasized in a statement to POLITICO that “state recognition of Palestine remains more of an end point in the process.”
Beyer argued that taking the antagonizing move of recognizing a Palestinian state doesn’t further any goals. “A recognition of a Palestinian state has no legal binding effect and is purely symbolic politics,” he said.
In recent conversations about the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Trump administration officials have not specifically raised recognition of a Palestinian state. The Germans didn’t raise it either, according to a person briefed on the discussions.
Some European officials worry that recognizing a Palestinian state could prompt Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to annex all or parts of the West Bank, an outcome they worry would exacerbate existing divides.
Recognizing a Palestinian state does nothing to change the conditions on the ground: Gaza is under siege by Israel, which has vowed to fight until it achieves its goal of eliminating Hamas.
The enclave is also disconnected from and has different leadership than the West Bank, which is occupied by Israel.
Moreover, the declaration has no legal implications and “does not change the status of the Palestinians at the U.N.,” said Richard Gowan, U.N. expert at the International Crisis Group. “They will not become a full U.N. member because that still requires the approval of the Security Council and the U.S. can veto it.”
The Trump administration is so far shrugging at the effort.
“The two-state solution conference is a publicity stunt … a slap in the face to victims of Oct. 7 and a reward for terrorism,” a U.S. official said, adding that Washington would “continue to lead real-world efforts to end the fighting and deliver a permanent peace.”
“The whole thing is dumb [and] it doesn’t accomplish anything,” a second U.S. official said, granted anonymity to speak candidly about an ally.
Still, the prospect of the declarations seems to matter to the U.S. to some extent. The Trump administration pressed France and the other countries participating not to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state, Rubio said in Qatar after visiting Israel earlier this week.
“We warned them that we thought that was counterproductive. We actually think it’s undermined negotiations, because it emboldened Hamas, and we think it undermines future prospects of peace in the region,” Rubio said, adding that the U.S. also believes the conference has contributed to a push by far-right ministers in Israel to annex the West Bank.
But symbolic gestures may be the best Europe has to offer right now.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has taken steps to increase pressure on Israel over Gaza. On Wednesday, the commission unveiled plans for unprecedented tariffs and sanctions targeting Israel over findings of human rights violations in Gaza.
But for now, there hasn’t been sufficient support among EU countries to pass either the sanctions or tariffs, with the latter requiring a qualified majority to pass.
Currently 147 of the U.N.’s 193 member states recognize an independent Palestinian state. Ten have done so amid Israel’s ongoing war, including Mexico, Ireland and Spain. But that list excludes much of Europe and Israel’s chief backer, the United States, countries that have more leverage with Israel and have given it financial and military support.
The U.S. and its partners have long argued that recognition of a Palestinian state should come as part of a negotiated two-state solution. The formal recognition by other countries is an admission that such a process is all but dead.
Macron and his allies argue recognizing a Palestinian state will provide the necessary impetus to end a conflict that worsens by the day, even as they privately concede that the only country with real leverage is Washington.
“It will create a way for us to say that the two-state solution cannot be wiped out by the Israeli operation that we see happening on the ground. This is a clear sign of the international community that we commit to supporting this solution on the ground,” an official with the French presidency said.
While France is leading the effort, Canada is also a key player.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said in July that Canada intended to recognize a Palestinian state ahead of the General Assembly, accusing the Israeli government of an “ongoing failure” to stop the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian disaster in Gaza.
Carney’s commitment is predicated on the Palestinian Authority committing to reform its governance and hold general elections next year “in which Hamas can play no part,” he said. Abbas wrote a letter to Macron and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed in June promising to hold legislative elections in 2026, but such a prospect is unlikely as the West Bank has not held such a vote since 2006.
The U.S. has long been isolated at the United Nations for its steadfast support of Israel, but the French and Saudi-hosted event has exacerbated this dynamic.
After France announced in July that it would recognize Palestinian statehood at the assembly, the Trump administration refused to grant visas to Abbas and other members of the Palestinian delegation. The second U.S. official and a third U.S. official said this was a direct response to France’s decision to host the event Monday.
Rubio said the move to deny and revoke visas from members of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Authority was meant to hold the bodies “accountable for not complying with their commitments, and for undermining the prospects for peace.”
Abbas will now address the conference by video, but the decision also means that there will be little to no Palestinian representation at the event and at the United Nations this week in general.
While French officials remain tightlipped about their conversations with the Trump administration, they admit Washington remains hostile to the idea of recognition. Still, they argue that in the long run it would serve Trump’s interest in the region: pursuing peace and consolidating the Abraham Accords.
Initially Macron attached a string of ambitious conditions to recognizing a Palestinian state, including that several Middle Eastern nations would need to normalize relations with Israel.
Those efforts fell through, so Macron turned to G7 nations and European countries to generate momentum and put pressure on Israel and the U.S.
For the French, it’s important to show there’s an alternative to the enduring humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Trump’s “Gaza Riviera” plans.
“No one will be able to say there is no plan for Gaza,” if and when there is a ceasefire, said a French diplomat.
Nicholas Vinocur, Sam Blewett and Daniel-Dylan Böhmer contributed reporting.
Schwartz and Bolzen reported from Washington. Caulcutt reported from Paris, Weber and Blewett from London and Vinocur from Brussels. Bolzen and Böhmer are reporters for WELT, a publication owned by Axel Springer, POLITICO’s parent company.
