Washington — President Trump frequently touts a U.S. economy that’s on the rise under his stewardship: he talks about energy and grocery prices that are falling, lower mortgage rates and claims he’s vanquished inflation. He argues things have never been better for the American consumer, especially after predecessor Joe Biden’s administration.
This month, there were mixed messages on the economy — Americans’ consumer confidence slid to its lowest point since May, but this week, revised data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a strong 3.8% pace in the second quarter.
Consumers say they’re wary, with Americans recently surveyed by CBS News and YouGov most likely to choose “uncertain” or “struggling” to describe the current state of the economy.
Here’s how the president’s recent claims on the economy stack up.
“Under my leadership, energy costs are down”
United Nations General Assembly, Sept. 23
The average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour has increased since the same time last year. Residential electricity costs were 6.2% higher in August 2025 than they were a year earlier, the latest federal data shows, while natural gas is up 13.8%. That’s higher than the annualized overall rate of inflation, which was 2.9% in August.
The cost of household energy overall has increased slightly, according to the Federal Reserve Board of St. Louis. In August of this year, the average cost of energy for a household was $282.84. In August of 2024, it was $263.44.
Overall, energy prices are expected to rise, largely due to increased demand from the rise of artificial intelligence, oil and gas drilling, electrified transportation and overall increased economic activity after the end of the pandemic. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects residential electricity rates to increase steadily by as much as 18% in the next few years, far outstripping the annual inflation rate of about 2.7%.
It’s not clear how the president will drive down energy costs to as much as he said he would on the campaign trail. At a rally in North Carolina on Aug. 14, 2024, he said his administration would be “slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months.”
“Gasoline prices are down”
U.N. General Assembly, Sept. 23
If the president is referring to gasoline prices just since this time last year, he’s right. The cost of an unleaded regular gallon of gasoline dropped from $3.52 in August 2024 to $3.30 in August 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Overall, gas prices have remained somewhat flat since Mr. Trump took office, a win for the administration, since gas is often more expensive in the summer, when more Americans are traveling. An unleaded regular gallon of gas cost $3.21 when Mr. Trump took office.
“Grocery prices are down”
U.N. General Assembly, Sept. 23
“Grocery prices are obviously not down,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Grocery prices have continued to climb, despite the president’s pledge on the campaign trail that grocery prices would come down. Prices for food at home increased by 0.6% in August, which was the fastest monthly rise in nearly three years, with increases across all major food groups. The cost of food at home increased 2.7% from August 2024 to August 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s nowhere near the dramatic jump of nearly 11.4% during 2022, but it’s also inaccurate to say grocery prices are down.
A pound of ground beef, which was $5.55 in January, was $6.32 in August, according to CBS News’ price tracker. A pound of ground coffee, which was $7.02 in January, was $8.87 in August, partly due to tariffs. But some prices have come down. Egg prices, which spiked due to a bird flu outbreak, are less than when he took office in January — $3.59 in August, compared to $4.95 a dozen in January.
“In fairness to the president, the overall consumer price index has increased by 1.3% since January and grocery prices have increased by 1.1%,” Strain said. “So grocery prices are increasing at a slower rate than the overall CPI. But they’re still increasing.”
The fact is, even if grocery prices are increasing at a rate that is slower than the consumer price index, people are still going to notice that they’re more expensive than they were last month, whatever economists say.
“My sense is that they were trying to communicate there would be deflation in grocery prices,” Strain said. “A perfectly sensible thing to say would be that grocery price inflation is going to come down, which would still mean that grocery prices were going to go up.”
“Mortgage rates are down”
U.N. General Assembly, Sept. 23
“Mortgage rates are down,” Strain said. “That’s true.”
On Jan. 16, a few days before Mr. Trump took office, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.04%, according to Freddie Mac. On Sept. 18, it was 6.26%.
Rates dipped in anticipation of the Fed’s rate cut, but also responded to economic conditions, and the 10-year Treasury. But even as mortgage rates decline, buying a home remains unaffordable for many typical working Americans.
Mr. Trump has expressed a strong desire for interest rates, and mortgage rates specifically, to drop further. Even with slightly lower interest rates, buying a home is out of reach for the average worker.
“Inflation has been defeated” and there is “no inflation”
U.N. General Assembly, Sept. 23, and in Oval Office, Sept. 25
The president told the world at UNGA “inflation has been defeated,” and has repeatedly said, including multiple times in the Oval Office on Thursday, there is now “no inflation.”
The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% in August, a slight increase from months prior. Inflation was trending lower after Mr. Trump took office, but began ticking back upward in spring.
“Inflation has not been defeated — at all,” Strain said. “Inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. It looks to me like inflation is actually re-accelerating, that the rate of inflation is increasing, not decreasing.”
Economists say the president’s tariffs, and uncertainty over those tariffs, are partly to blame. But while Strain says tariffs are a factor, he doesn’t think they’re the only factor.
“I think the underlying economy is stronger than we had thought,” Strain said, and that’s “contributing to inflationary pressure.”
Households are also expecting inflation to continue at a rate above the Fed’s 2% target, he said. Strain said he’s concerned inflation may be worse than we think now.
“The only thing that’s up is the stock market, which just hit a record high.”
U.N. General Assembly, Sept. 23, 2025
It’s accurate that the stock market has reached all-time highs during Mr. Trump’s second term, despite fluctuations around his tariff announcements. The S&P 500 has hit 28 all-time highs this year, and more in September so far than any month since September 2017.
The S&P hit 5,997 on Friday, Jan. 17, shortly before Mr. Trump was sworn into office. On Tuesday, when Mr. Trump commented on the stock market, it closed at 6,658.
The Dow Jones has also reached all-time highs since Mr. Trump took office, although it dipped this spring when talk of tariffs was at its height. The Nasdaq has also reached record highs during Mr. Trump’s second term.
“Manufacturing is booming”
U.N. General Assembly, Sept. 23
Against economists’ expectations, U.S. factory production increased in August, up 0.9% year over year, after struggling in July. The White House has cited that demand as “signaling confidence and future investment in manufacturing as domestic producers ramp up capacity.”
But there are fewer manufacturing jobs in the U.S. now than when Mr. Trump took office. In August, employers shed 12,000 manufacturing jobs. Payrolls in the sector have shrunk by 42,000 since April, according to an analysis from the left-leaning Center for American Progress, based on government data.
“We have fewer manufacturing jobs than we had a year ago,” Strain said.
The Trump administration hopes both manufacturing employment and factory output will increase as the president’s tariffs go into full effect.
“The administration is right to say that it’s too early to judge the results of their policies, I think that’s clearly true,” Strain said. But, he expects the administration’s “protectionist policies, the tariffs, will reduce manufacturing employment, not increase manufacturing employment,” because tariffs increase the cost of the parts imported into the U.S. to make finished goods.
“Workers’ wages are rising at the fastest pace in more than 60 years”
U.N. General Assembly, Sept. 23
Blue-collar workers are seeing wage growth under Mr. Trump. Real wage growth increased 1.7% for blue-collar workers in the first five months of the Trump administration, a bigger increase than the first five months of any other administration. That’s likely what the president was referring to when he talked about swiftly rising wages.
But the same isn’t true for white-collar wage growth, which is lagging behind inflation, according to a Bankrate analysis of BLS data.
On the whole, wage growth is relatively flat. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data published by the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, overall unweighted wage growth in August was 4.1%, the same as it was in January and slightly below August 2024, when it was 4.6%.
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