Fall is a season where western New York really shines: apple picking, pumpkin patches and Buffalo Bills football. And this year, the weather is lining up to be warmer and wetter than normal, according to long-term forecasts.
When fall rolls around, expect warm temperatures to stick around until at least the early part of season, said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather lead long-range expert. Those conditions could persist through the start of the school year. Meteorological fall begins Sept. 1, while astronomical autumn begins on Monday, Sept. 22.
“We’re seeing some trends going on right now as we speak that parts of Ontario, Quebec and upstate New York, they’re drying out and that could lead to warmer days,” Pastelok said. “And we’re going to see some warmer periods, I think, in August and leading into the start of the fall season across most of the Northeast and parts of the Great Lakes as well.”
Fall temperatures for September through November are expected to be 2 or 3 degrees warmer in western New York. The dry periods will be offset by wet periods as cold fronts pass through, Pastelok said. The National Weather Service three-month outlook for August, September and October predicts warmer and wetter than normal conditions are likely across the Northeast.
What is the fall foliage forecast for NY?
AccuWeather has yet to release its official fall foliage forecast, which is coming later in August, but Pastelok said warm, sunny days encourage the production of chlorophyll and slows the turning of leaves. Should the area receive the ideal formula of warm days and cool nights, it can lead to vibrant fall reds and purples.
“If this is a continuous dry period all the way to the end of August then the leaves may start to fall off quicker,” he said. “So it’s still too early to tell exactly on the timing of our fall foliage peak season, but I do think there’s going to still be some good colors.”
There is some risk of flooding this fall across western and central New York, with a similar outlook for severe weather in the Rochester and Buffalo areas. Some of the risk comes in the form of a favorable tract for tropical remnants to enter the area.
AcciWeather’s severe weather risk for the period September through November 2025.
While Rochester may feel well removed from the path of tropical systems being so far from the coast, it’s not immune from severe weather and tornadoes produced by those storms, as shown by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl last year.
“If any of these storms come up through the Gulf pathway, because of the upper pattern we’re forecasting here in September and October, it can come right up the chute and bring some substantial rainfall, maybe some flooding,” Pastelok said.
— Steve Howe reports on weather, climate and the Great Lakes for the Democrat and Chronicle. An RIT graduate, he has covered myriad topics over the years, including public safety, local government, national politics and economic development in New York and Utah.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Rochester NY fall forecast predicts warm, wet conditions
