The first day of fall is bringing some severe weather to Middle Tennessee.

According to the National Weather Service, the region faces a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for medium to heavy rain and thunderstorms over three consecutive days starting Sept. 22.

From Sept. 22-24, there’s a low threat of severe storms each afternoon and evening with heavy rain and damaging winds between 40 – 60 mph. Some storms may produce heavy downpours, leading to minor flooding.

“Efficient” rainfall could run off the hard ground leading to localized flooding, added the weather service.

“If you have outdoor plans the next few days, keep an eye on the forecast and the radar!” wrote National Weather Service Meteorologist Scott Unger.

Here’s what to else to know.

When will storms move into Middle Tennessee?

A passing weather system during the afternoon and evening hours on Sept. 22 will increase wind shear, raising the chance for organized storms and damaging wind gusts, said the weather service. Activity is expected to taper off overnight but not end completely.

Storm coverage and intensity will pick up again during the afternoon and evening Sept. 23, with another low risk for severe weather.

From Sept. 24-25, a low-pressure system will develop over the Mississippi River Valley, bringing widespread rain and storms to the region. High rain chances will increase the potential for localized flooding, said the weather service.

A cold front will move through late Sept. 25, keeping high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s through the weekend. Rain chances will lessen after the front passes, though some showers may linger as the upper-level system sticks around.

“Later next weekend, things dry out with pleasant temperatures lasting well into the following week as we wrap up September,” wrote the weather service.

Nashville-area radar

Nashville 7-day outlook

Sept. 22: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87 and a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, likely after 4 p.m.

Then mostly cloudy, with a low around 68 at night and a 60% chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 7 p.m., with rain chances continuing after 2 a.m.

Sept. 23: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87 and a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1 p.m. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm are likely to continue after 3 p.m.

Then mostly cloudy, with a low around 69 at night and a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1 a.m. Showers are likely between 1-4 a.m., with more showers and possible a thunderstorm after 4 a.m.

Sept. 24: A high near 82 with an 80% chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Then a low around 66 at night and an 80% chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

Sept. 25: Partly sunny, with a high near 82 and a 50% chance of showers, with thunderstorms possible after 1 p.m. Then partly cloudy with a low around 61 and a 20% chance of showers.

Sept. 26: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82 and a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Then mostly clear at night, with a low around 58.

Sept. 27: Sunny, with a high near 84 then mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Sept. 28: Sunny, with a high near 85.

Diana Leyva covers trending news and service journalism for the Tennessean. Contact her at Dleyva@gannett.com or follow her on X at @_leyvadiana

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: First day of fall brings severe weather to Nashville, Middle Tennessee