When the federal government ran out of money on Oct. 1, the consensus in Washington, D.C., was that it was likely the start of one of the lengthiest shutdowns ever. Those predictions have proved to be true. This is now officially the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
More than a full month later, the government remains closed, and the dynamics in Congress that led to the standoff in the first place are essentially unchanged. Republicans still need a handful of votes from Democrats to get any plan to reopen the government through the Senate. Democrats still say they’ll only let a funding proposal pass if it satisfies some of their policy priorities, a demand the GOP has fully rejected.
Wednesday marked the 36th day of the shutdown, which sets the record for the longest ever. The previous record was the 35-day shutdown that started in December 2018, during President Trump’s first term in the White House.
This was already the longest “full” shutdown in U.S. history, in which the entire federal bureaucracy has run out of funding. During the last shutdown, some parts of the government — most notably the military — were unaffected.
What has happened so far?
Very little has changed since the shutdown began. Congressional leaders of both parties have remained steadfast in their positions, and there have been few signs of substantive high-level negotiations to reach a deal.
There has been zero action at all in the House of Representatives, which has been on recess since Sept. 19. The Senate has been meeting regularly, but only to hold repeated votes on a short-term funding bill that would temporarily allow the government to reopen. As of Friday, that proposal had been brought up and rejected 13 separate times.
On Oct. 30, President Trump called on Senate Republicans to use the “nuclear option” of overriding the filibuster, but that idea doesn’t appear to have much support within the GOP caucus.
Presidents, including Trump during his first term, typically take an active role in negotiations to reopen the government. That hasn’t been the case this time around.
Trump has been largely absent from the day-to-day developments on Capitol Hill, allowing House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to be the voice of the GOP on the shutdown. He reportedly hasn’t spoken to Democratic leaders at all since the shutdown began.
Where do things go from here?
Recent ongoing bipartisan discussions have raised some hope that an agreement to temporarily reopen the government could be reached as soon as next week. But those conversations are subject to the same partisan tensions that have stood in the way of a deal so far.
Since the start of the shutdown, Democrats’ No. 1 demand has been to extend Obamacare subsidies that are set to expire at the end of this year. Open enrollment began Saturday, and with Americans seeing sharp increases in the cost of health care plans for next year, the political dynamics around this specific sticking point may change when lawmakers return to Washington this week.
Political pressure may also start to increase when more than 40 million Americans miss out on benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Those benefits did not go out as scheduled on Saturday because of the shutdown.
On Monday, the Trump administration announced it would send out partial benefits in response to a pair of court rulings ordering the Department of Agriculture to use billions of dollars it has in an emergency fund to pay for SNAP. Despite that announcement, Trump suggested on Tuesday that food stamp benefits would not be paid until the shutdown ends, but the White House later clarified that it is complying with the court order. Still, it’s unclear when SNAP recipients might begin to get their benefits.
It’s also unclear what impact Tuesday’s elections, which saw Democrats win every major race by large margins, might have on the shutdown. Reports from Capitol Hill suggest that some congressional Democrats view their party’s victories as a signal to hold the line on their demands. However, Trump responded by upping his call for Republicans to override the filibuster in the Senate so they can pass a bill to reopen the government without any Democratic votes.
