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Republicans and Democrats have entered a war in legislatures and courts to narrow the political battlefield of 2026 before a single vote is cast.
Normally, redistricting only occurs after the US census counts residents in each state every 10 years. A demand from Donald Trump to lock in more Republican-leaning districts in Congress, together with a changing legal landscape around partisan gerrymandering, set off a chain of mid-decade reapportionments.
Republicans hold control of the US House with a 219-213 margin, one of the smallest majorities in American history.
Three representatives have died in office – two Democrats and a Republican – who have yet to be replaced. Each was in a district considered safe for their party. The Democrat Adelita Grijalva of Arizona has won election but, controversially, has not yet been seated.
The Guardian used data from the Cook Political Report and local media to tabulate the aspirations of leaders in each state where redistricting before the 2026 midterms has been contemplated.
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Texas
Redistricting goal: +5 seats for Republicans
Texas was the first to conduct mid-decade redistricting, ramming it through the open revolt of minority-party Democrats in the legislature. The redistricting changes results based on the 2024 vote from a 25-13 Republican margin to 30-8, with seven Republican districts within a 10-point margin. Voting rights groups have challenged the redistricting on racial gerrymandering grounds, but the law has been enacted.
Running total: +5 Republicans
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California
Redistricting goal: +5 seats for Democrats
California’s legislature is countering the Texas redistricting with one of its own, aiming to undo a neutral redistricting commission written into the state’s constitution. The redistricting changes results based on the 2024 vote from a 43-9 Democratic margin to 48-3, with 21 Democratic districts within a 10-point margin.
California voters will decide on a referendum – Prop 50 – next Tuesday to enact the changes into law.
Running total: Even
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Missouri
Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Republicans
Missouri’s Republican-dominated legislature redrew its congressional map in late September to turn a safe Democratic district near Kansas City into one that leans Republican. The redistricting changes results based on the 2024 vote from a 6-2 Republican margin to 7-1, with no Republican district within 10 points. The change faces federal lawsuits. Opponents are gathering signatures for a referendum which would in effect block the change for 2026 if they reach the signature threshold.
Running total: +1 Republicans
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North Carolina
Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Republicans
North Carolina’s Republican-dominated legislature redrew its congressional map on 22 October, adding Republican voters to a closely divided district along the coast traditionally held by a Black Democrat. North Carolina’s Democratic governor has no veto over redistricting legislation. The redistricting changes results based on the 2024 vote from a 10-4 Republican margin to 11-3, with no Republican district within 10 points.
Running total: +2 Republicans
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Kansas
Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Republicans
Kansas requires a two-thirds majority in each legislative chamber to agree to a special session, which would be required to redraw its congressional maps. Republicans narrowly have a supermajority in both chambers, and the senate announced it had reached the threshold, but the state house has not yet gathered enough signatures. The redistricting would change results based on the 2024 vote from a 3-1 Republican margin to 4-0, probably with one closely divided Republican district.
Running total: +3 Republicans
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Virginia
Redistricting goal: +3 seats for Democrats
A proposed constitutional amendment would give Virginia lawmakers emergency powers to redraw a new congressional map, contingent on the mid-decade redistricting of other states. The Virginia general assembly is meeting in a special session to advance the amendment, which can only be voted on after the start of the next legislative session in 2026. No map has yet been proposed, but a redistricting change adding three Democrats would change Virginia’s Democratic margin from 6-5 to 9-2. The process faces legal opposition from Republicans.
Running total: Even
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Indiana
Redistricting goal: +2 seats for Republicans
Indiana’s Republican governor, Mike Braun, announced on Monday that he is calling a special session to consider redrawing congressional districts in the state. Indiana currently sends seven Republicans and two Democrats to Congress. A new map would probably allow Republicans to easily flip Indiana’s first district covering Gary and the state’s Chicago suburbs, according to the Cook Political Report. Though a majority supports redistricting in the Indiana state house, a significant number of Republican state senators oppose a redistricting. The session is set to convene on 3 November.
Running total: +2 Republicans
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Ohio
Redistricting goal: +1 seats for Republicans
A last-minute negotiation surprise by Ohio’s redistricting commission resulted in a compromise congressional map that’s more favorable to Democrats than anticipated. Ohio sends 10 Republicans and five Democrats to Congress, one of whom – Marcy Kaptur – is in a seat Trump won by seven points. That district will become more Republican, as will one other seat held by a Democrat, while another Democratic seat will become less competitive for a Republican. Three of the five Democratic seats will be considered politically competitive in 2026.
Running total: +3 Republicans
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Illinois
Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Democrats
The Democratic-dominated Illinois legislature is under pressure from congressional Democrats to open up redistricting in a state that is already heavily gerrymandered to favor Democrats, who hold 14 of the 17 congressional districts. The move would require a special session: lawmakers rejected taking up the measure during a veto session this week. State legislators have expressed concern that gaining another seat would require diluting Black voting power for current districts, stretching Chicago-area districts deep into Republican, white-majority regions.
Running total: +2 Republicans
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Maryland
Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Democrats
The Democratic governor, Wes Moore, is at loggerheads with the state senate president, Bill Ferguson, who sent a letter on 28 October rejecting redistricting, questioning its political morality and legal feasibility. A state supreme court ruling in 2022 prohibited a previous attempt to gerrymander the state’s sole Republican representative out of his district. Moore has indicated he may call a special session for redistricting regardless, given support from other legislative leaders.
Running total: +1 Republicans
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Florida
Redistricting goal: +3 seats for Republicans
Governor Ron DeSantis has called for a special session to redraw the state’s congressional maps. The prospect faces two practical hurdles, however. The popular fair districts amendments to the state constitution passed by referendum in 2010 explicitly ban partisan and racial gerrymandering. And special election results this year suggest that Florida Republicans may be more concerned about shoring up incumbents in close districts than capturing new seats, according to Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report. The project may depend on the outcome of the supreme court case in Louisiana. Read more here.
Running total: +4 Republicans
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Louisiana
Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Republicans
The US supreme court is considering arguments in a much-watched case, Calais v Louisiana, which may undo key provisions of the Voting Rights Act that protect non-white minority voters from racial gerrymandering. If the court agrees, it would set a precedent that makes it considerably harder to bring redistricting lawsuits on the basis of race, and undercut section 2. Louisiana’s current map has a Republican margin of 4-2. If the court favors Republicans, Louisiana would be expected to redraw its map for a 5-1 advantage.
Running total: +5 Republicans
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Alabama
Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Republicans
Alabama redrew its congressional map last year after voting rights activists successfully challenged the state on the basis of racial gerrymandering. If the supreme court eliminates that protection in the Calais case, Alabama would be expected to revert back to its previous maps. Alabama’s current map has a Republican margin of 5-2. If the court favors Republicans, Louisiana would be expected to redraw its map for a 6-1 advantage.
Running total: +6 Republicans
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Wisconsin
Redistricting goal: +2 seats for Democrats
A group of voters is challenging Wisconsin’s congressional map, arguing that it is a partisan gerrymander that violates state law to the detriment of Democratic voters. The Wisconsin supreme court – dominated by conservatives in 2022 – adopted a map created by the then-Republican legislature which gives Republicans a 6-2 margin in the state’s congressional delegation. Two of the six Republicans are in seats decided by less than five percentage point margins. The state’s partisan voting balance is very close; Donald Trump won Wisconsin by about one percentage point. But the suit is a relative long shot to be decided in time for the legislature to act for the 2026 elections.
Running total: +4 Republicans
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Utah
Redistricting goal: +2 Democrats
Utah legislators have submitted a congressional map to the state’s courts for approval after a court challenge. The state currently sends four Republicans to Congress. Rather than redraw the map that creates one safe Democratic district, legislators instead have chosen to risk the creation of two closely competitive districts around Salt Lake City, which might be won by either a Democrat or a Republican.
Running total: +2 Republicans
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Nebraska
Redistricting goal: No change
Nebraska’s three congressional representatives are all Republicans. However, the second congressional district around Omaha has grown more competitive over the years. Kamala Harris won this district in 2024 by four points. Legislators may consider a special session for redistricting to shore up this district for Republicans, but would face a filibuster in the state’s unicameral legislature and must have total support from elected Republicans to succeed.
Running total: +2 Republicans
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New York
Redistricting goal: +1 seat for Democrats
A group of New Yorkers filed a lawsuit against the state’s board of elections this week, alleging that its congressional map unconstitutionally dilutes the voting power of Black and Latino residents of Staten Island. The suit is a long-shot effort to get around an amendment to the state constitution creating a redistricting commission that eliminates partisan gerrymandering. New York currently sends 19 Democrats and seven Republicans to Congress. The suit, if successful would allow the court to redraw one district, currently held by a Republican.
Running total: Not included
