TOKYO (Reuters) -Sanae Takaichi is likely to be Japan’s first female prime minister after winning the race on Saturday to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
The former internal affairs minister, a conservative nationalist with an expansionary agenda, is expected to replace Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba since the LDP is the largest in parliament.
Below are comments on the outcome:
MARI IWASHITA, EXECUTIVE RATES STRATEGIST, NOMURA SECURITIES
“(Bank of Japan) Governor (Kazuo) Ueda appeared to be in no rush to hike interest rates anyway. Takaichi’s win will make it even more likely the BOJ will take a wait-and-see mode and hold off raising rates in October. Until the political dust settles and there is more clarity on the new administration’s policy stance, there’s little reason for the BOJ to rock the boat with a rate hike.”
NAOYA HASEGAWA, CHIEF BOND STRATEGIST, OKASAN SECURITIES, TOKYO
“The chance of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike later this month has weakened. The market will initially react to the outcome of the LDP election by buying bonds with mid-term maturities and selling super-long dated bonds. So the curve will steepen.
“The market saw a more than 60% chance for the BOJ’s rate hike to 0.75% until now, but that will fall to below 50% next week.
“The market’s expectations for the BOJ’s interest rate hike had risen lately as the market priced in Koizumi’s win, and a hawkish message from BOJ board member (Asahi) Noguchi.”
TOSHINOBU CHIBA, FUND MANAGER, SIMPLEX ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO
“This is really surprising. I think we’ll see the yen depreciate and a twist steepening of the JGB yield curve. And we have to see what her policy details are.”
YUKA HAYASHI, VICE PRESIDENT, THE ASIA GROUP, WASHINGTON, D.C.
“Takaichi is a very experienced politician. She has had some experience working in the U.S. as well, a long-term observer of U.S.-Japan relations, so that’s her strength.
“She said that she’s confident that she could build a very strong personal relationship with President Trump. And the reason for that is her policy focuses on what she calls the ‘Japan First’ policy. And that kind of corresponds to President Trump’s America First policy. She sees that sort of common thread there. On the other hand, she’s a hardliner, very conservative when it comes to Japan’s relationship with its Asian neighbours.
“She has had a very hawkish stance on World War II legacy issues. She has insisted on visiting the Yasukuni Shrine numerous times, knowing that would inflame Japan’s relationship with its neighbours. So there is some concern that she could fuel tensions with the relationship with South Korea and China.
“This is a very challenging time for the LDP so I think she would probably try to focus on party unity and be very careful about taking excessively conservative hard-line stances in foreign policy.”
(Reporting by Tokyo Newsroom; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
