Maddow Blog | Facing a government shutdown deadline, Republicans place a risky bet

Lately, on a nearly daily basis, Democratic leaders in Congress have issued some kind of public statements, reminding Republicans of the upcoming government shutdown deadline, and urging the GOP majority to work on a bipartisan solution.

On a nearly daily basis, Republicans ignore those appeals and move forward with a partisan plan intended to keep the government’s lights on. That trend continued Tuesday afternoon, when House GOP leaders unveiled a stopgap spending bill (called a continuing resolution, or “CR”) that would prevent a shutdown and push the next deadline to Nov. 21. Republicans realize that Democrats expect to see a solution that addresses health care policy, but the majority disregarded the minority party’s demands.

“The House Republican-only spending bill fails to meet the needs of the American people and does nothing to stop the looming healthcare crisis,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a joint statement. The New York Democrats added, “At a time when families are already being squeezed by higher costs, Republicans refuse to stop Americans from facing double-digit hikes in their health insurance premiums.”

GOP leaders’ apparent indifference to Democratic concerns didn’t come out of nowhere: It reflects Donald Trump’s directive to his party. Though it didn’t generate a lot of coverage, Politico reported late last week:

President Donald Trump dismissed congressional Democrats’ demands ahead of a looming shutdown deadline in a Fox News interview Friday, casting doubt on whether a deal to keep the government open is even possible. ‘There is something wrong with them,’ Trump said about Democrats in a rare in-studio ‘Fox and Friends’ interview. … ‘Don’t even bother dealing with them,’ he added. ‘We will get it through because the Republicans are sticking together for the first time in a long time.’

I’m not in a position to say with confidence what the president does and does not understand. But in reality, whether Republicans are prepared to “stick together” or not isn’t the only question: In the Senate, any bill to prevent a shutdown will need to clear a 60-vote procedural hurdle — and there are 53 Republicans in the chamber.

It’s a point that seemed to confuse Trump in his interview on Friday. “We have to get Republican votes. That’s all,” he claimed. Asked about the 60-vote threshold, he added, “No. We’re going to do a — probably a continuing resolution, or we’re going to do something. So we’re going to do something.”

That didn’t exactly sound like a solid plan.

With two weeks remaining before the deadline, one of six things will soon happen:

1. Republicans will struggle to pass their own bill in a narrowly divided House, making a shutdown all but inevitable.

2. Republicans will struggle to pass their own bill in a narrowly divided House, forcing GOP leaders to make concessions to Democrats, which would very likely prevent a shutdown.

3. Republicans will pass their bill in the House, but Senate Democrats will largely stick together (basically everyone other than Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania), making a shutdown all but inevitable.

4. Senate Republicans will cave and accept changes made to satisfy Democrats, making a shutdown far less likely.

5. Several Senate Democrats (Fetterman and at least six others) will fold and accept the Republicans’ bill in order to prevent a shutdown.

6. Senate Republicans will rely on the “nuclear strategy” to change the rules and pass their bill by majority rule, lowering the threshold in the chamber from 60 votes to 50.

Which of these scenarios will play out? The answer will unfold over the next 14 days. Watch this space.

This article was originally published on MSNBC.com