The Missouri House is expected to approve a new congressional map Tuesday that would eliminate a Democratic-controlled US House seat, as Republicans around the country scramble to boost their chances of retaining control of Congress after next year’s midterm elections.
On Monday night, lawmakers in the chamber cast a preliminary vote approving the new district lines, although several Republicans joined Democrats in voting against the plan. Even so, final passage in the GOP-controlled state legislature is expected by week’s end, putting Missouri on track to become the third state in recent weeks to press ahead on new House maps as part of a national battle over redistricting.
President Donald Trump’s allies are hunting for opportunities to add more Republican-friendly districts in several states where the GOP has full control of state governments. They include Ohio – where a state law already requires legislators to draw new maps this year – as well as Florida, Indiana and South Carolina.
The president’s party typically loses ground in midterm elections, and Democrats need to net just three seats in the House to flip the chamber. If they succeed, Trump could see a Democrat-led House thwart his legislative agenda in the final two years of his term and launch new investigations of him and his administration’s policies.
And in neighboring Kansas, some Republican officials support undertaking their own mid-decade redistricting to knock out the lone Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation.
Swift action in Missouri
Missouri lawmakers recite the Pledge of Allegiance as a special legislative session gets underway on Wednesday, September 3, at the state capitol in Jefferson City, Missouri. – David A. Lieb/AP
In Missouri, Republicans who hold a supermajority in the state legislature have moved swiftly to sign off on a new map unveiled a little more than a week ago by Gov. Mike Kehoe. The map targets longtime Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver by splitting up his Kansas City district and merging it with rural and heavily Republican counties that spread into central Missouri.
Republicans are favored to hold seven of the state’s eight House seats under the new map, up from the current six.
Dozens of Missouri residents testified against the plan at a public hearing last week, arguing it dilutes the political power of the state’s largest city and forces urban and rural communities with little in common into a single district.
People attend a hearing on redrawing congressional district maps at the Missouri capitol on Thursday, Sepember. 4, in Jefferson City, Missouri. – Emily Curiel/The Kansas City Star/TNS/Getty Images
During debate on the House floor Monday, Democratic lawmakers opposed to the map repeatedly argued that Republicans in the legislature are doing the bidding of Trump to gain an unfair advantage in the midterms.
“This isn’t policymaking. This is cowardice,” said state Rep. Jo Doll, a Democrat. “Instead of listening to the people we represent, you are twisting the process to protect Trump’s grip on power and tip the scales in his favor.”
For their part, most Republicans said they were following Kehoe’s lead.
“This is a Missouri First map, made in Missouri, for Missouri, as recommended by our governor,” said state GOP Rep. Dirk Deaton, the bill’s sponsor.
Other GOP-led states could follow
Next door in Kansas, the GOP-led redraw, if it proceeds, would target four-term Rep. Sharice Davids, the lone Democrat in the state’s four-member House delegation and one of the first two Native American women elected to Congress.
In a statement, Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson said he “would consider redistricting as a part of the bigger battle for the heart and soul of the country.”
Davids called the potential redraw a “clearly political” move. “Their goal is clear: stack the deck in their favor because they know their policies aren’t popular,” she said in a statement.
Texas state Rep. Gene Wu, D-Houson, sits through debate over a redrawn US congressional map in Texas during a special session, Wednesday, August 20, in Austin, Texas. – Eric Gay/AP
Republicans, who control the governor’s offices and legislatures in 23 states compared to just 15 held by Democrats, have more routes to pick up additional seats by changing congressional boundaries.
This round of partisan warfare kicked off in Texas where Republicans last month drew new congressional boundaries that could help their party net as many as five House seats. That sparked a counteroffensive in California from the state’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 White House contender, who is leading a drive to amend the state’s constitution to approve a new map to benefit Democrats. It requires voter approval in November.
California marks the best hope for Democrats. In addition to potentially adding five House seats for his party, Newsom’s plan also would move four Democratic seats into safer, deeper blue territory.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks about the “Election Rigging Response Act” at a press conference at the Democracy Center, Japanese American National Museum on August 14, in Los Angeles. – Mario Tama/Getty Images
Voters in November still must approve the redistricting gambit. And the persuasion campaign is shaping up as one of the costliest political fights of the year. Donors already have plowed more than $41 million into the groups involved in the ballot measure, state records show.
“If California fails, that’s when you start to think that the (midterm) map is double-digit seats better for Republicans,” said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a newsletter published by University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Adam Kincaid, the president and executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, argues Newsom’s moves in California have helped fuel the GOP energy in a growing number of states.
“A lot of Democrats could potentially be losing their seats thanks to Gavin Newsom’s decision to overreact in California,” Kincaid told CNN.
Marina Jenkins, the executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said it is “completely appropriate” for Democratic states to respond to what Trump and Republicans started in Texas.
“The effort that the Trump administration is making exposes how afraid they are of the American people,” she said.
Democratic governors in Illinois, Maryland and New York have suggested redrawing their maps to add more districts favoring their party. In Maryland, at least two Democratic legislators have ordered drafts of bills ahead of January’s legislative session that could target GOP Rep. Andy Harris, the only Maryland Republican in Congress.
In Utah, meanwhile, a state judge recently ordered the Republican-controlled legislature to quickly redraw a congressional map that sliced Democratic-leaning Salt Lake City into four districts that each had a Republican majority.
The state is now entirely represented by Republicans in Congress, and the lower court order raised the specter of a Democratic pickup in this deep-red state. GOP lawmakers, however, have asked the state’s Supreme Court to put the judge’s ruling on hold, leaving the map’s outcome uncertain at this point.
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