Seven years after moving to Ireland, Natalia Stirbu still goes home to Moldova to vote — part of a powerful diaspora whose ballots could prove decisive in the small country’s battle between Moscow and the West.
Moldovans living abroad already propelled pro-European Union President Maia Sandu to re-election victory last year.
Now they could become crucial to her ability to push one of Europe’s poorest countries towards EU membership, as Moldovans prepare to go to the polls in parliamentary elections on September 28 made tense by accusations of Russian meddling.
“I tell everyone to go to vote because it’s the only way we can be part of the European family,” Stirbu, a 46-year-old event organiser, told AFP.
But the influence of the diaspora has not gone unnoticed by the pro-Russian opposition, which Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has accused of targeting voters such as Stirbu with disinformation. Police have also said the diaspora has faced vote-buying.
Former Moldovan president Igor Dodon of the pro-Russian Socialists, part of the main opposition bloc, is among those courting the diaspora on social media.
While in the past he dismissed them as “a parallel electorate” whose vote could be “put on hold”, this time he appealed to them as “dear friends” and asked for a “massive” participation lest “ambassadors vote instead of you”.
Dodon has accused the PAS in turn of planning fraud, “especially in the diaspora”.
– ‘Integrity’ –
More than one million Moldovans live abroad — a hefty counterweight to the population of 2.4 million who remain in the former Soviet republic, wedged between Ukraine and EU member Romania.
Under Sandu’s leadership, Moldova applied for EU membership after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Last year a record 300,000 members of that diaspora voted in the second round of the presidential elections — casting almost a fifth of the total ballots and helping to secure Sandu’s re-election.
Diaspora votes also helped secure her bid to inscribe the country’s EU objectives in the constitution. Accession talks began last year.
But the PAS is facing growing headwinds in the country over economic difficulties and failure to keep its promises on reform, and analysts have warned that Sunday’s results remain uncertain — underscoring the importance of the diaspora vote.
Sandu has toured some European countries and encouraged the diaspora to show “integrity and courage” at the polls.
The PAS also has a dedicated Facebook page for those abroad.
And the EU has responded with a show of support as German, French and Polish leaders visited Chisinau last month, slamming Russian “hybrid attacks”.
– ‘Election miracle’ –
A large mobilisation in the diaspora could help repeat last year’s “election miracle” and help PAS clinch a narrow majority, analyst Andrei Curararu of the Chisinau-based think tank WatchDog.md told AFP.
He described the diaspora vote as “a stabilising factor” against Russian interference in the elections.
In neighbouring Romania, during an event for the Moldovan community organised in the capital Bucharest, Nadia Darie, a 36-year-old marketing specialist, described the elections as part of “a big battle between the East and West”.
“Russia is trying to cling to the last thread of influence it has left in Eastern Europe,” she said.
But “our citizens have not lost their discernment and ability to separate the wheat from the chaff,” added Darie, wearing a dress inspired by traditional Moldovan costumes, with large red flowers embroidered on the sleeves.
“The economy of the Republic of Moldova and the well-being of every citizen depend on at least one member of the family who has gone abroad to work,” she said, hoping for a record mobilisation of the diaspora.
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