The National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems in the Atlantic basin.
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become the season’s first hurricane on Aug. 15 and a major hurricane Aug. 17. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
The latest forecast is predicting Erin’s winds will hit 125 mph by Sunday.
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In the Gulf, Invest 98L has a low chance for development, before it moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday. The National Weather Service in Brownsville, Texas, said regardless of tropical development, locally heavy rain and increased swells “will be a concern” along the Texas coast.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Aug. 14:
Where is Tropical Storm Erin going?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
NOAA hurricane tracker: See spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now?
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Invest 98L: A broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulfduring the next day or two, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development. The system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday, ending its chances of tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
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Formation chance through seven days: low, 20 percent.
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Invest 98L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Is Tropical Storm Erin coming to Florida, what is its path?
Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to curve north in the Atlantic, remaining east of Florida and the U.S.
Indirect impacts are possible along the eastern coast.
“There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range,” the National Hurricane Center said.
However, “the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.”
Officials are encouraging residents to monitor the storm and to be prepared.
Who is likely to be impacted by Invest 98L in Gulf?
Regardless of any tropical development, Invest 98L is expected to bring tropical moisture across much of the area early Friday morning into Saturday.according to the National Weather Service in Brownsville, Texas.
Up to 2.4 inches of rain could fall along and east of US-281/I-69C by Friday afternoon and remaining through Saturday afternoon. A pocket of more than 2.5 inches is possible moving northward along the Lower Texas Coast Friday afternoon.
Florida weather radar for Aug. 14, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Hurricane season’s ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
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Fernand: fair-NAHN (historically forms Aug. 29)
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Hurricane Center tracker, path, models for Erin, Invest 98L
