Nigeria earned $2.21bn from crude oil exports to the United States in the first seven months of 2025, according to fresh data released by the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The figure underscores Nigeria’s continued role as America’s largest African crude supplier, even though shipments have weakened compared to last year. Between January and July 2025, Nigeria shipped a total of 28.7 million barrels of crude oil to the United States. This made it the single largest African crude supplier to Washington, significantly ahead of Libya, Angola, and Ghana.

The data shows that the customs value — which measures the crude’s price at the point of export — stood at $2.16bn. On a Cost, Insurance, and Freight basis, which accounts for the full landed cost including shipping and insurance, the value rose slightly to $2.21bn.

This difference highlights the additional costs required to transport crude oil across the Atlantic. However, compared with the same period in 2024, Nigeria’s earnings and shipment volumes have fallen. In the first seven months of last year, Nigeria exported 31.5 million barrels to the United States, valued at $2.78bn on a customs basis and $2.83bn on a C.I.F. basis.

The latest figures therefore represent an 8.8 per cent drop in volume and about a 22 per cent decline in dollar value. The trend points not only to reduced shipments but also to weaker average prices for Nigerian crude in 2025.

The data also reveals sharp monthly fluctuations. In June 2025, Nigeria shipped 6.95 million barrels, valued at $484m (customs) and $496m (C.I.F.). This was one of the strongest months of the year.

But in July, exports fell steeply to just 4.4 million barrels, with corresponding values of $328m and $336m. This decline reflected both lower volumes and weaker pricing, raising concerns over Nigeria’s ability to maintain consistent export performance.

Other African oil producers exported smaller volumes to the United States during the same seven-month period. Libya earned $729.3m, Angola $426.6m, and Ghana $225.8m — all on a C.I.F. basis. Altogether, African crude exports to the US reached $3.82bn, with Nigeria alone contributing more than half of the total.

The figures highlight both Nigeria’s importance in global energy markets and the fragility of its export performance. The sharp year-on-year decline in earnings underscores the country’s vulnerability to fluctuations in crude oil prices and volumes, at a time when the government is struggling to stabilise foreign exchange reserves and shore up revenue.

The PUNCH had earlier reported that Nigeria’s total crude oil exports fell by N3.18tn in the first half of 2025, despite a rise in production volumes. This was captured in the National Bureau of Statistics foreign trade report, which reflected declining earnings from the sector.

According to the NBS, crude oil exports were valued at N24.92tn between January and June 2025. This was down from N28.10tn in the same period of 2024, representing an 11.3 per cent year-on-year decline, or a loss of N3.18tn.

A quarter-by-quarter breakdown shows that the steepest decline occurred in the first quarter of 2025. Exports for Q1 stood at N12.96tn, compared with N15.49tn in Q1 2024. This difference of N2.53tn amounted to a 16.3 per cent fall.

In the second quarter, the drop was less severe. Crude oil exports fell from N12.61tn in Q2 2024 to N11.97tn in Q2 2025. The reduction of N642bn represented a 5.1 per cent decline.

The NBS data also revealed a declining contribution of crude oil to Nigeria’s overall exports. In Q1 2024, crude accounted for 80.8 per cent of total exports. But by Q1 2025, this had dropped to 62.9 per cent — a decline of nearly 18 percentage points.

The downward trajectory continued into the second quarter. Crude contributed 52.6 per cent of total exports in Q2 2025, compared to 71.2 per cent in Q2 2024. This marked a decline of about 18.6 percentage points.

The figures suggest Nigeria is gradually losing its heavy reliance on crude oil exports as other export sectors gain traction. However, analysts warn that the shift may not reflect diversification but rather declining oil earnings.

Experts attribute the weaker export performance to multiple factors. Global oil prices have remained volatile, while Nigeria’s crude grades have faced stiffer competition from both traditional and new suppliers to the US market.

In addition, logistical challenges, theft, and vandalism on Nigeria’s oil infrastructure continue to limit effective output. Even with rising production figures, not all output translates into stable exports.

Market analysts also point to shifts in US energy demand. Although the United States has been importing African crude to balance its energy needs, its domestic shale oil industry has reduced its dependence on external sources, putting pressure on exporters like Nigeria.

Meanwhile, industry operators commended the government for the recent ramping up of crude oil production in-country, as the development has positively impacted export volumes. “We must give it to the government this time, because their ability to curtail oil theft has really positively impacted crude output.

“We know that the revenue from crude sales is a major source of foreign exchange for the country, and this should be sustained,” the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Ukadike Chinedu, stated.

The declining earnings pose fiscal risks for Nigeria, given its dependence on crude oil for foreign exchange and government revenue. Lower export receipts may further weaken the naira and strain the country’s ability to fund imports and service debts.

Economists stress the urgent need for Nigeria to diversify its export base beyond crude oil. While non-oil exports have recorded some growth, they remain far too small to offset the impact of falling crude revenues.

Looking ahead, the performance of Nigeria’s crude oil exports will depend on a mix of global oil prices, domestic production stability, and US energy demand. If prices recover and production remains steady, earnings could improve in the final quarter of the year. For now, Nigeria remains America’s top African crude supplier.