Tropical Storm Melissa continues to keep forecasters guessing on where it will go and how strong it will get.
Not exactly the news Florida residents and visitors want to hear about a storm less than 1,000 miles away on Oct. 22 and expected to strengthen in the coming days.
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“There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa,” the National Hurricane Center said.
What is expected is that Tropical Storm Melissa will strengthen and it could become a hurricane Thursday, Oct. 23, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“Chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest,” NHC forecasters said. A major hurricane is one that is at least a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph.
Here’s what you should know.
Highlights on what Tropical Storm Melissa is doing now
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
See satellite photos, graphics of Tropical Storm Melissa
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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See map of hurricane/tropical storm watches, warnings issued for Florida
As of Oct. 22, no watches or warnings associated with Tropical Storm Melissa have been issued for Florida or the U.S.
Is there a hurricane coming to Florida?
Not at this time.
There is “significant uncertainty in the track and intensity” for Tropical Storm Melissa, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are predicting Melissa will strengthen into a hurricane Oct. 23 and there’s a chance it could become a major hurricane if it tracks farther to the southwest.
AccuWeather: Chances low for Florida impact from Tropical Storm Melissa but keep an eye open
“At this time, I think the chances of any direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva via email Oct. 21.
“The more likely scenario is that the storm moves across Cuba and then heads out to sea. By the end of this week into the weekend, Melissa is expected to stall or move very slowly near Jamaica or Hispaniola. Sometimes when tropical cyclones stall, unexpected things can happen, so we’re watching closely.
“If Florida were to see any impacts, it would likely be around the middle of next week — Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31).
“There’s nothing imminent right now, but it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we monitor trends and model data.”
Fox Weather: Chance of Melissa impacting Florida not zero, but ‘extremely small’
“Chances of some direct effect on Florida aren’t zero, but they are extremely small,” said Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross via email Oct. 21.
“The only way it could happen would be for Melissa to drift into the extreme western Caribbean before a dip in the jet stream moving across the U.S. came along to scoop it north,” Norcross said. “There is no indication of that in the current reasonable track scenarios, however. Still, a track over Cuba and the Bahamas is not out of the question.”
AccuWeather said there is “a medium risk of tropical rain or wind impacts across the Bahamas and South Florida from Oct. 27-30.”
Best- and worst-case scenarios with Tropical Storm Melissa
Fox Weather’s Bryan Norcross:
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Best-case scenario: “The best case is that Thursday’s jet stream dip grabs it and moves it quickly over the Dominican Republic or Haiti.”
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Worst-case scenario: “The worst case is that it sits close enough to one or several of the mountainous Caribbean islands and dumps feet of rain. Three or four feet are not out of the question. In addition, next week there is some possibility of it becoming a very strong hurricane before it makes its move to the north. In that case, direct impacts of a major hurricane are possible on Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and/or somewhere in the Bahamas.”
AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva:
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Best-case scenario: “The best-case scenario for Florida would be if Melissa moves over eastern Cuba or Hispaniola and then gets pulled out to sea. That would spare Florida from impacts, though it would likely bring life-threatening and possibly catastrophic flooding to parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Dominican Republic.”
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Worst-case scenario: “The worst-case scenario for Florida would be if the storm stalls this weekend and then drifts west into the western Caribbean, where conditions could support rapid intensification into a stronger, potentially even a major hurricane. Then, if that next dip in the jet stream grabs it, the storm could move north and clip South Florida before curving up the East Coast.
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“Even if Melissa reaches the western Caribbean, that doesn’t guarantee direct impacts in Florida; many models still show it moving over central Cuba and then out to sea. For now, there’s nothing immediate to worry about, but it’s definitely worth monitoring closely over the coming days.”
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Jet stream expected to influence where Tropical Storm Melissa will go
“Melissa is currently being tugged northward by a dip in the jet stream, but late this week that dip will move away into the Atlantic, leaving the storm in a weak steering flow. That’s why we expect it to stall near Jamaica or Hispaniola and possibly drift westward,” DaSilva said.
“The key question is how far west it can get. If it reaches the western Caribbean, Florida could come into play. We’ve seen late-season storms like Wilma take a similar route, though we’re not forecasting that kind of track right now.
“Another dip in the jet stream is expected early to mid-next week. If Melissa drifts far enough west before then, that next trough could pull it northward toward or near South Florida.
“The more likely outcome right now is that the storm stays east of Florida. We’ve seen a slight westward trend in the models over the past 12 hours, but that could be temporary. We’ll know more as new hurricane hunter data improves the model guidance over the next day or so. Weak steering currents make the forecast tricky, and that’s why you see such a wide spread in the model plots,” DaSilva said.
What should Florida residents do now?
As always during hurricane season, forecasters urge Florida residents and visitors to closely monitor the tropics and to stay prepared.
➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free
On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.
➤ Don’t have a hurricane supply kit? From the basics to the extras, here’s what you need
Here are some of the basics you should have:
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Two-week supply of medications
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A go-bag with essential supplies in case you need to leave quickly
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Portable cellphone chargers
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Melissa storm tracker, path: Florida impacts, what to do
