President Donald Trump’s bad week got a lot worse on Tuesday when judges blocked his Texas gerrymander, leaving Republicans wondering whether the nationwide remapping effort was worth the political capital.
A panel of federal judges ruled against Texas’ redrawn congressional maps that offered Republicans a five-seat pickup opportunity, saying they likely created an illegal, race-based gerrymander. The ruling came as Indiana Republicans punted the White House’s redistricting push there to January’s regular session, amid local opposition.
Together, they represent roadblocks for the White House’s push to shore up a House majority through mid-decade redraws. Republicans began their rush to redraw the maps with the upper hand, but state-level backlash, Democrats’ big Election Day win for California’s redistricting measure and this court ruling have cut into that advantage, with just under a year until voters head to the polls in next year’s midterms.
Now, if the Texas ruling withstands an already-filed appeal and hesitant Republicans across the country don’t budge, Trump stands to end the fight he began behind or near a draw.
“The whole thing is just utterly foolish,” said Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.), who is pushing a bill to end mid-cycle redistricting after his seat was redrawn to favor Democrats. “Frankly, the [House] speaker needed to show more leadership from the beginning on this.”
Democrats are poised to gain five seats in California following the successful ballot measure pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Other Republicans echoed Kiley on Tuesday.
“I was never in favor of doing all this redistricting stuff anyway,” said Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.). “Should not have opened that box.”
California-based Republican strategist Rob Stutzman predicted the effort will end as “a possible debacle” if the Texas ruling holds.
“This will have been a ready, shoot, aim exercise by Trump,” he said.
Republicans had drawn nine favorable seats across four states since beginning this White House-backed strategy, including the five in Texas. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio have collectively drawn four seats that lean in the GOP’s favor, and there are pending legal challenges for some of the remaps.
In addition to Democrats’ likely gains in California, they stand to pick up one seat in Utah following a recent court ruling and two in Virginia if the state draws new lines next year. All three of those states still face legal hurdles, including the Department of Justice joining a Republican-led lawsuit in California.
Kiley said Republicans’ assumption they could end the redistricting battle with an advantage was a miscalculation.
“It was very clear that it was going to have this domino effect, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing,” he said.
Democrats — who at one point fretted they could get crushed in the mid-cycle process — were quick to gloat on Tuesday, with Newsom leading the way.
“Donald Trump and Greg Abbott played with fire, got burned — and democracy won,” he posted on X. “This ruling is a win for Texas, and for every American who fights for free and fair elections.”
Republicans who support the mid-cycle redistricting push are clinging to the hope that the Supreme Court will overturn the Texas ruling. And they express no regrets about undertaking the effort.
“We’re in a very strong position and will probably win,” said longtime Abbott adviser Dave Carney. “But more importantly, the legislature has the ability to draw maps using partisanship as a guide. We can literally rewrite every fucking district in the state to be a Republican district.”
The White House isn’t showing any sweat either. One person familiar with Trump’s thinking and granted anonymity to describe it said, “we look forward to reversal on appeal.”
Indiana lawmakers continue to face serious pressure from the White House to redraw their lines, as do Kansas legislators, which could collectively create three red-leaning districts. And Florida Republicans are on the cusp of joining the fight, with a redistricting commission set to meet next month. That effort could give Republicans three to five favorable seats.
“The Republican Party has more readily available levers to pull than the Democrats,” said GOP redistricting lawyer Jason Torchinsky.
But Kiley thinks the White House pressure campaign is not worth the energy it requires.
“Any time or resources spent on [redistricting] I think is time and resources that could have been used on issues that are actually of importance to the country,” he said.
Samuel Benson, Lisa Kashinsky and Adam Wren contributed to this report.
