SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea’s new president will host leaders from 20 countries for the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where the American and Chinese leaders are set to hold a high-stakes meeting on the sidelines.
The two-day annual APEC summit, which opens in Gyeongju on Friday, is likely to test Lee Jae Myung’s diplomatic abilities as he faces tough foreign policy challenges.
Lee, in office less than five months, seeks to get along with friends and rivals alike with his self-proclaimed “pragmatic diplomacy.” But prospects for greater cooperation with Washington and Tokyo are in doubt due to Trump’s tariff war and the election of a new ultraconservative leader in Japan. Tensions with North Korea remain high after Pyongyang snubbed Lee’s overture and bolstered ties with Russia and China instead.
In Gyeongju, Lee is expected to hold one-on-one meetings with U.S President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, while presiding over APEC events.
Experts say the summit may offer positive optics for Lee, but it doesn’t guarantee long-term diplomatic success.
A joint declaration and US-China tensions
This year’s APEC summit, the first in South Korea in 20 years, is overshadowed by Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting, whose results are expected to have a major impact on the global economy. Trump will likely skip APEC’s main conference, but experts say Lee could still align with other countries to promote free trade and multilateralism.
South Korean officials say they’ve been holding ministerial-level communications with other countries to prod all 21 to issue a joint declaration at the end of the summit in an effort not to repeat the failure to reach one in 2018 in Papua New Guinea due to U.S.-China discord over trade.
“Of course, there are some lingering issues, but many have been resolved. We’re making efforts toward the adoption of a ‘Gyeongju Declaration’ and acting as a mediator between the U.S. and China,” South Korea’s national security director Wi Sung-lac told local broadcaster KBS on Sunday.
US and Japan
Top South Korean officials have been recently flying in and out of Washington to finalize a trade agreement with the U.S., but it’s unclear if the two countries can strike one in time for the APEC summit.
South Korea’s trade minister, Kim Jung-Kwan, told lawmakers Friday that Washington and Seoul remain “sharply divided” over how much of South Korea’s promised $350 billion U.S. investment package should be provided as direct cash payments under a July deal aimed at averting the Trump administration’s highest tariffs.
There are also worries that South Korea’s ties with Japan could turn sour because of the recent inauguration of Japan’s Takaichi, who has right-wing views on her country’s wartime aggressions.
Relations between the Asian neighbors and their trilateral military cooperation with the U.S. have improved in recent years. But Seoul-Tokyo ties previously experienced on-again, off-again setbacks due to grievances stemming from Japan’s past colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula. There are also questions about whether a trilateral Seoul-Tokyo-Washington partnership would continue to grow amid Trump’s “America first” policy.
Kim Tae-hyung, a professor at Seoul’s Soongsil University, said Seoul and Tokyo are more likely to continue to tighten cooperation as they both struggle to deal with Trump’s unilateral push to reset the global trade order and American security commitments to them.
Oh Hyunjoo, a deputy South Korean national security director, told reporters Monday that there likely wouldn’t be enough time to organize a trilateral meeting with Lee, Trump and Takaichi.
A push to reopen talks with North Korea
Restarting diplomacy between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would potentially help Lee’s push to reconcile with North Korea.
During campaigning, Lee said he would support Trump’s efforts to restore diplomacy with Kim, saying that improved ties between Pyongyang and Washington could allow aid projects for the impoverished North that would likely need South Korean funding.
While en route to Asia, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday that he’s open to meeting with Kim, saying he had “a great relationship” with him. North Korea hasn’t responded, but Kim suggested last month that he could meet Trump again if the U.S. withdraws denuclearization of North Korea as a precondition for talks.
Oh said Seoul sees little chance of a Trump-Kim meeting on the occasion of the APEC. But she noted that South Korea would have contingency plans ready if the two leaders decide to meet in the future. Their third and last meeting in June 2019 was arranged at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom, a day after Trump posted a tweet message inviting Kim to the border.
Chinese-Korean relations
Xi’s visit will mark his first trip to South Korea in 11 years. Lee is expected to seek to boost economic and other ties with China, South Korea’s biggest trading partner, observers say.
China, locked in rivalry with the U.S., likely sees the need to improve relations with South Korea and Japan. That possibly gives South Korea more diplomatic leverage and allows it to manage its relations with Washington, Beijing and Tokyo more effectively, said Jeonghun Min, a professor at Seoul’s National Diplomatic Academy.
“(South Korea’s approach) is to strengthen cooperation with the U.S. on a robust alliance and, on that foundation, manage relations with China and other major countries,” Min said. “The attendance of leaders from all major countries at this APEC summit provides a good opportunity to advance such pragmatic diplomacy.”
