Republican-controlled Texas and Democratic-run California were set Thursday to forge ahead on creating new congressional maps, in a cutthroat struggle to tilt the outcome of next year’s US midterm elections before voters even cast a ballot.
The fierce battle between the country’s two largest states has been set off by President Donald Trump’s drive to protect the thin Republican majority in the US House of Representatives and avoid becoming mired in Democratic investigations from 2027.
Under pressure from Trump, Texas fired the starting gun in a tussle that pro-democracy activists warn could spread nationwide. Its state house on Wednesday approved new congressional boundaries that would likely eke out five extra Republican districts.
The state senate was scheduled to green-light the bill later Thursday and send it to Governor Greg Abbott for a signature — just as California’s assembly and senate rush to respond.
The Golden State’s Governor Gavin Newsom — an early frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — has been pushing a map that would likely cancel out Texas by adding five Democratic seats.
Its legislature will vote on a trio of bills allowing for a special election to change the constitution, clearing the way for Newsom to replace the state’s existing congressional maps through 2030.
The Texas House approved its new district boundaries after a two-week drama sparked by Democrats fleeing the state in an effort to block the vote and draw nationwide attention to the issue of partisan redistricting, known as “gerrymandering.”
The Senate Special Committee on Congressional Redistricting passed the new map in a 5-3 vote Thursday lunchtime, teeing up an evening vote of the full chamber.
Redistricting usually occurs once every decade, taking into account population changes registered in the latest census.
– ‘Clinging to power’ –
The unusual mid-decade effort in Texas is expected to spark a tit-for-tat battle, potentially dragging in liberal-leaning Illinois and New York, and conservative Florida, Louisiana, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri.
“The Great State of Missouri is now IN,” Trump announced Thursday on social media, in a post understood to be referring to redistricting.
“I’m not surprised. It is a great State with fabulous people. I won it, all 3 times, in a landslide. We’re going to win the Midterms in Missouri again, bigger and better than ever before!”
But New York’s Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul called the push the “last gasp of a desperate party clinging to power,” warning Trump in a statement that she would “meet him on the same field and beat him at his own game.”
Former president Barack Obama endorsed California’s retaliation as a “smart and measured” response to anti-democratic moves by Trump.
“(Since) Texas is taking direction from a partisan White House and gerrymandering in the middle of a decade to try and maintain the House despite their unpopular policies, I have tremendous respect for how Governor Newsom has approached this,” he said.
Newsom has a tougher task than Abbott in pushing through the redistricting plans, as California voters must first agree in a referendum in November to bypass the independent commission that normally controls the process.
Californians have traditionally been deeply wary of partisan redistricting, and while Democrats have called for independent commissions nationwide, a new Politico-UC Berkeley Citrin Center poll shows they would make an exception for the pushback against Texas.
Republicans are suing Democrats, alleging that November’s vote would be unlawful, although the California Supreme Court rejected an initial challenge late Wednesday.
“Yes, we’ll fight fire with fire. Yes, we will push back. It’s not about whether we play hardball anymore — it’s about how we play hardball,” Newsom said in a call with reporters.
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