Democrats were forced into a generational fight in Texas — and the next younger generation won.
As Texas Republicans pressed forward with a mid-decade redistricting plan to shore up the GOP’s miniscule House minority, Democrats scrambled to gain an edge in a potential member-on-member matchup.
For weeks, three-decade incumbent Rep. Lloyd Doggett, 78, publicly insisted he was going to run in the redrawn 37th District while urging 36-year-old Rep. Greg Casar to run for a redder version of his current seat. But Doggett, a veteran of previous redistricting fights, ultimately announced last week he wouldn’t seek reelection in a newly configured Austin-area district — opting against an expensive, messy fight against a rising star.
“I think in the last two weeks Lloyd Doggett thought that some of the folks who would be with him money, marbles, and chalk … were, in fact, with Greg, and that gave him great pause as to what his chances were,” said Mark Littlefield, an Austin-based political strategist, using what he called an old Texas political aphorism.
The staredown between the two politicians — which played out before a primary campaign fully kicked off — came as Democrats have been grappling with a broader reckoning over seniority and age. The party has experienced a swell of anti-incumbent sentiment since President Joe Biden was pushed off the ticket last year, and many Democrats are steeling themselves for messy primaries. Casar, who was elected to the House in 2022 and has earned national attention for his meteoric climb to become chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, appeared poised to tap into the party’s thirst for fresh talent in any race against Doggett.
Publicly, Casar managed to stay out of the spotlight and above the fray; behind the scenes, however, he was quietly starting to collect endorsements and fundraising commitments. Meanwhile, Doggett prompted some hand-wringing in the party after he urged Casar to run in a different district. Both Doggett and Casar declined to comment.
Before Doggett reversed course, Casar was prepared to time his official entry into the primary contest with the rollout of an endorsement slate containing half of the Austin City Council and more than a dozen members of Congress from a diverse cross-section of the Democratic Caucus, according to a person granted anonymity to share private campaign details.
Casar’s allies had already prepared $1.5 million in outside spending to boost him in a potential primary, with more expected to land as energetic grassroots groups mobilized. Outside progressive groups like End Citizens United and the Working Families Party were gearing up to support Casar, too.
“There’s no question where we stand, and will continue to stand. We would have stood with Greg,” said Maurice Mitchell, national director of the Working Families Party.
Some buzzy figures in Democratic politics were maneuvering to shore up Casar’s standing. Strategist and philanthropist Luis A. Miranda Jr., also the father of “Hamilton” creator Lin-Manuel Miranda, even hosted a “Latinos for Greg” fundraiser along with Democratic fundraiser Regina Montoya. Democratic activist and actress Jane Fonda was scheduled to hold an event on Casar’s behalf, too, said the person familiar with the campaign.
Organizations like BOLD PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ political arm, were also gearing up to fight against Doggett, who is white, in support of Casar, the child of Mexican immigrants.
BOLD PAC spokesperson Valeria Ojeda-Avitia denounced the Texas gerrymandering as “racist” and “partisan” and said the group “is prepared to go all in to defend our incumbents and ensure Latino communities have the representation they deserve.”
Casar was also already ready to launch a campaign with a formidable national team, including Molly Murphy and Madeline Conway of Impact Research. He had a launch video produced by Morris Katz, an advisor to Zohran Mamdani, ready to go.
Only adding to the pressure was an op-ed authored by a slate of Texas political veterans calling on Doggett to “pass the torch,” which helped signal that many of Doggett’s longtime backers might not stick with him through another tough race.
Despite all this, Doggett’s announcement took some Democrats by surprise: He’s the dean of the Texas delegation with $6.2 million in the bank and a seat on one of the most influential Congressional committees, the taxwriting Ways and Means panel.
But Democrats had privately blanched at the prospect of the member-on-member contest, especially between two lawmakers so closely aligned on progressive politics that could test allegiances.
Most Democrats still wish they hadn’t been forced to choose between the two men, especially with Doggett’s longstanding ties to the party.
“This redistricting mid-decade is really fucked up,” said Tory Gavito, president of Way to Win, which was set to back Casar. “When I found out that I was going to have to push toward the primary, I literally cried. It’s just not a position I wanted to be in.”
Yet even with the potential matchup in the 37th district clear, Democrats are still facing other messy contests in the wake of Republicans’ new map that could net the GOP up to five new seats. Casar and Doggett aren’t the only two Democratic incumbents being drawn into the same district, with other incumbents having to choose which of a shrinking number of Democratic or competitive seats they want to run for.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett, an outspoken voice in the party, has signaled she might run for a redrawn seat currently held by the more centrist Rep. Marc Veasey, who himself was drawn out of his Fort Worth home. If Veasey moves to one of the two redrawn Democratic Dallas-area seats, this could result in a potential matchup between Crockett and first-term Rep. Julie Johnson, whose current Dallas-area district was redrawn into a sprawling red seat.
And in Houston, longtime Rep. Al Green could opt to run for the vacant seat held by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner after the district turned redder. Green’s office did not respond to a request for comment. But doing so would put him on a collision course with the victor in an ambitious field of Democrats now running in a special November special election for the current district.
“My goal and my plan is to serve this district long term,” said Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee in an interview. He’s leading some polls for the seat along with former Houston City Council Member Amanda Edwards, who struck a similar tone: “Right now I want to focus my attention on the special election…given the fluidity, it’s my intention to serve this 18th Congressional District.”
