The federal government is on track to shut down at midnight on Oct. 1. After weeks of negotiations, Republicans and Democrats appear to be no closer to finding a way to keep the government open before the deadline hits.
The two sides are so far apart that even getting together in the same room to discuss a possible solution is off the table. On Tuesday, President Trump canceled a meeting with Democratic leaders that had been planned for later this week, arguing there was no way that such a meeting could be productive given their “unserious and ridiculous demands.”
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in Washington, responded by accusing Trump of “running away from the negotiating table.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Trump was “afraid” of seriously discussing Democrats’ proposals.
Little has changed since the two parties began laying out their funding plans at the beginning of this month. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have budged, and reports suggest that both sides are willing to keep their heels dug in as the clock ticks closer to a shutdown.
Where things stand
Everything the government does — whether it’s the post office, tax collection or national parks — costs money. It’s the job of Congress to allocate those funds. Congressional budgets only last a certain amount of time, however, so a new one has to be approved before the money runs out. Most of the time, Congress is able to get something approved before the funding tap runs dry. On the rare occasions that they can’t, the government shuts down.
The current standoff centers entirely around seven votes. That’s how many Democrats the GOP needs on board in order to get any funding bill they put forward through the Senate. So far, Democrats have remained united in their stance that they won’t back any funding proposal unless they get something in return.
It’s not clear what it would take to get enough Democrats to sign off, but their main focus has been on health care. The biggest sticking point is reportedly around subsidies for plans through the Affordable Care Act. They’re set to expire at the end of this year, which could cause premiums to spike by an average of 75%. Democrats want those subsidies to be extended, possibly permanently. Recently they have been calling for as much as $1 trillion in funding for Medicaid that was slashed as part of Trump’s “big beautiful bill” to be restored. Both proposals are nonstarters for Republican leadership.
“They’re trying to use what they think is leverage to get a bunch of stuff done,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Fox News on Monday. “It’s never going to happen.”
The GOP has countered by pushing a “clean” bill that keeps funding at its current level moving forward. A short-term bill that would have delayed a shutdown until November passed through the House last week, but it died in the Senate when no Democrats would support it.
Conversations and finger-pointing will continue throughout this week, but it’s unlikely that there will be any votes on actual legislation. The Senate is scheduled to return to business on Monday, with one day to spare before a shutdown. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he won’t bring the House back into session until the day after the funding deadline.
Where do things go from here?
Congress “plays chicken” with shutdowns on a relatively regular basis, but usually finds a solution before the deadline hits. The last time it failed was in 2018, when disagreements over border wall funding set off a 35-day shutdown that saw hundreds of thousands of federal workers go without pay, widespread disruptions throughout government agencies and billions of dollars in lost economic growth.
Like so much else in Trump’s second term, the dynamics around this shutdown are unique. Democratic leaders are facing enormous pressure from their base to stand up to the president’s agenda, especially after they faced significant backlash for helping the GOP prevent a shutdown in March. The likely blowback that would come if they conceded once again might seem far more daunting than any blame they may receive for the shutdown itself.
Democrats may also be hesitant to agree to any deal with Trump after watching his administration take unprecedented steps to slash government spending, shutter agencies and rescind congressionally approved funding since he returned to the White House.
Trump’s unprecedented use of executive power cuts both ways, though. If there is a shutdown, he would have even more authority than he already does over how the government operates. During shutdowns, the executive branch has significant leeway to decide which government operations will continue and which will be suspended. Trump might see that as an opportunity to punish Democrats by strategically pausing government services in a way he thinks will do maximum political damage to Democrats while keeping his own priorities in operation.
“I think he wants to shut down,” Sen. Peter Welch, a Democrat from Vermont, said of the president.
