The National Hurricane Center is tracking two new tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean, one of which could impact Florida.
It comes as Imelda was officially downgraded from a hurricane on Thursday morning. The storm is now moving further away from the U.S. East Coast into the Atlantic Ocean and away from Bermuda after it brought hurricane-force winds and flash flooding to the island earlier this week.
While the remnants of hurricanes Imelda and Humberto don’t pose a direct threat to the East Coast, they will still continue to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents from Florida up to New York this week, according to forecasters.
Next up on the NHC’s tropical outlook map this week are two new disturbances.
Where are the disturbances, and what are the chances they’ll intensify?
Disturbance 1 in the Southwestern Atlantic: “A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days,” the NHC said as of 8 a.m. ET on Friday. “Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.”
-
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10%
-
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10%
Disturbance 2 in the Central Tropical Atlantic: “A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today. The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that,” the NHC said as of 8 a.m. ET on Friday. “Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week.”
-
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0%
-
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40%
A “hatched” area on the NHC’s tropical outlook map indicates that “significant” severe weather is possible. “Areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” NHC deputy director Jamie Rhome told USA Today.
The colors indicate how likely a weather system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high. As of Friday morning, Disturbance 1 is indicated in yellow, while Disturbance 2 is indicated in orange on the NHC’s outlook map.
How is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal. We’re currently in the peak of hurricane season, which runs from mid-August through mid-October.
In early August, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters slightly updated the range of expected storms from 13-19 down to 13-18, of which up to five could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms, and there’s about 25% left of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. As of Oct. 3, there have been nine named storms: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter and Fernand, and hurricanes Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda. The next named storm will be Jerry.
How does this Atlantic hurricane season compare to past years?
Now that Hurricane Imelda has turned out to sea in the Atlantic, this year marks the first time since 2015 that a hurricane has not made landfall through the month of September, according to AccuWeather. In years past, the following Atlantic hurricane seasons also went without a single hurricane making landfall in the U.S. through September: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2006, 2002, 2001 and 2000.
“Every hurricane season is different. This hurricane season so far is quite unique, with several close calls for the United States,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “Erin was a major hurricane that stayed 200 miles off the coast of North Carolina in August. The Southeast was spared from major flooding from Hurricane Imelda in September, thanks in part to the rare Fujiwhara Effect. Hurricane Humberto passed within 500 miles of Imelda and helped to pull the smaller storm away from the U.S. coast and out to sea.”
The only named Atlantic storm to make landfall in 2025 was Tropical Storm Chantal, which caused torrential rainfall that triggered record-breaking flooding in North Carolina back in July.
“Hurricane season is far from over. It’s important to remind everyone that the Atlantic hurricane season runs through the end of November. We have been forecasting a more active second half of the hurricane season since the spring,” DaSilva said. “Do not let your guard down. We expect atmospheric conditions that could support tropical storms and hurricanes well into late October and November this year.”
