One of the hallmarks of Zohran Mamdani’s historic win in New York City was the big turnout that included lots of new voters. The city’s expanded electorate saw far more young people cast votes than usual, as well as many voters who had not turned out in recent elections.
As the Democratic Party discusses whether to focus on turning out its base or persuading those on the other side, CBS News dove deeper into the data on new Democratic voters in last week’s election — specifically, people who didn’t back them in 2024. This group differs demographically from voters who backed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. Mamdani’s new voters are younger, more ethnically diverse, and less affluent — and they also voted in the off year for reasons distinct from those that drive consistent voters to the polls.
How many voters did Mamdani bring into the fold?
A closer look at the CBS News Voter Poll suggests that 15% of Mamdani’s voters didn’t back Harris last year, either because they preferred Donald Trump (5%), voted for a third-party candidate (3%) or just didn’t vote for president (6%). Mayoral votes are still being counted, but that translates to about 60,000 Trump-to-Mamdani voters and another 70,000 Mamdani voters who sat out 2024.
An even higher share of Mamdani-not-Harris voters were new mayoral voters. That is, half of them reported they had never voted in an election for mayor before.
Queens stands out as the borough where the Mamdani campaign both flipped and activated the most voters. About one in 10 Mamdani voters backed Mr. Trump last year, and another 7% did not vote for president. Looking at the numbers another way, our polling suggests that 15% of Trump voters turning out in the mayoral election flipped to Mamdani.
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Mamdani-not-Harris voters look quite different from more consistent voters in a variety of ways:
Mamdani benefited from strong youth support, but Mamdani-not-Harris voters are even younger than his other voters — two thirds of them were under the age of 45.Mamdani-not-Harris voters are less likely to have college degrees, and they tend to have lower family incomes (44% are under $50,000 annually).Mamdani-not-Harris voters are plurality Asian, while Harris-Mamdani voters are plurality White. And when it comes to religion, a 29% plurality of Mamdani-not-Harris voters are Muslim.
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Along with being younger and more diverse, Mamdani-not-Harris voters look different in their general political views and how they came to decide their mayoral vote:
Mamdani-not-Harris voters were much less likely to identify as Democrats — only half did — or as liberal on most political matters.While most disapprove of the job Mr. Trump is doing as president, the vast majority say he was not a factor in their vote for mayor. By contrast, most consistent Democratic voters say a reason for their vote was opposing Mr. Trump.Related to the socioeconomic differences we see, Mamdani-not-Harris voters are likelier to describe New York’s economy in negative terms and somewhat likelier to say they are falling behind financially.Another difference that emerges is the salience of Israel as a voting issue: the majority of Mamdani-not-Harris voters said the candidates’ positions on Israel were a major factor in their vote.And finally, Mamdani-not-Harris voters took longer to make up their mind about their choice for mayor. About four in 10 decided in the last month of the campaign. That is consistent with them being less partisan and ideologically committed than Mamdani’s other supporters, the vast majority of whom decided on him before October.
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Jackson Heights is a good illustration of where Mamdani added plenty of these kinds of voters. This heavily Asian and Latino working-class neighborhood in Queens leans Democratic, but it’s not as deeply blue as other pockets of the city. Harris carried it with 56% of the vote, but Mr. Trump still did better than expected last year.
CBS News estimates suggest that Mamdani is on track to match Harris’ support level here, despite the fact that many Democrats and Harris voters preferred Andrew Cuomo. Mamdani’s relative strength in the neighborhood therefore comes from flipping a non-trivial share of Trump voters, as well as a higher-than-expected turnout, featuring lots of 2024 non-voters and new mayoral voters.
Further down the Northeast Corridor…
In summary, Mamdani-not-Harris voters are younger and more diverse, both ethnically and socioeconomically. And they appear to be less ideological and more focused on pocketbook issues than they are on Mr. Trump.
While sizable and diverse, New York City’s electorate obviously is not representative of voters nationwide. But the gubernatorial races further south in New Jersey and Virginia offer additional data points on the types of voters Democrats brought into the tent this year — and many of the same patterns emerge.
Democrats Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia won in landslides, thanks both to high turnout in Democratic areas and some Trump voters flipping. And it was voters of color, specifically Latino voters, and younger voters who were the likeliest to flip. In New Jersey, for example, 18% of Latino Trump voters flipped to Sherrill this year, while only 5% of White Trump voters did so.
Add to this group voters who backed this year’s Democratic nominees but didn’t turn out in 2024 and you see many of the same characteristics as we saw in New York: the Democrat-not-Harris voters tend to be younger, less partisan, less affluent, and more focused on the economy.
These trends mirror CBS News polling that finds Mr. Trump’s approval rating has declined the most with young people, people of color, and less politically engaged Americans. But despite mostly disapproving of the president, new Democratic voters across these states mostly said their vote was not about him. As Democrats chart a path forward, there is much to replicate from their electoral success last week. Whether their goal is persuading former GOP voters to cross over, or persuading those who are disengaged that turning out is worth it, a focus on bread-and-butter economic issues seems to be a winning recipe for ousting incumbents.
This analysis relies on county- and precinct-level election results, demographic estimates, and survey data from the CBS News Voter Poll. The Voter Poll was conducted by SSRS, an independent research company, on behalf of CBS, ABC, CNN, Fox News, NBC, and the Associated Press. It combines data collected from verified registered voters online and by telephone, with in-person exit poll data collected on Election Day.
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