Both sides in the battle over Proposition 50 believe they have the winning formula to engage the state’s sizable Latino electorate: To focus their messaging on abuses of power by corrupt politicians who can be blamed for California’s affordability crisis.
“It’s the swingiest group, the group that’s moving the most,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist advising the No on 50 – Protect Voters First committee. “There’s no partisan anchoring — they’re literally voting against whoever is in power.”
Latino voters will make up 23 to 25 percent of the Prop 50 electorate, Madrid estimates, of which 40 percent or more are up for grabs, with the most persuadable targets younger Latino voters born in the U.S. Opinion research, he says, shows them less likely to respond to traditional Latino persuasion efforts (like Spanish-language ads) and distrustful of politics and politicians more broadly.
That has inspired mirror-image messaging efforts that tell California’s Latino electorate very different stories about whose abuses of power are responsible for the Democrats’ attempt at an unprecedented mid-decade gerrymandering. A Spanish-language ad from Protect Voters First claims elected officials want to rewrite the state constitution to “give politicians more power,” while Yes on 50 points to President Donald Trump’s immigration policies.
“The arguments for Prop 50 are arguments about basically what this administration has done to terrorize these communities,” said Yes on 50 strategist Juan Rodriguez.
His campaign is running English- and Spanish-language ads that feature U.S. Sen Alex Padilla recounting being tackled by federal agents and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez saying Trump is threatening “the wellbeing of our communities” as footage of ICE raids plays on screen.
Polling from the Latino Community Foundation released late last month showed what No side strategists say they’ve seen in their polling as well: That the cost of living, cost of housing and cost of health care, rather than immigration, topped the list of Latino voters’ concerns. That’s why the No committee led by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy focused its first Spanish-language ad on the cost of scheduling the off-year special election.
“There is an affordability crisis in California,” Hector Barajas, a spokesperson for No on 50 – Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab, told Playbook. “You’ve got a certain set of politicians that want to go and redraw the lines to provide some sort of benefit for themselves … and going to spend more than $280 million with a special election, money that could be better spent on other things.”
The Yes side is going in on affordability, too, but from a different perspective: Trump’s trade policy. “He promised he’d cut your costs, but under Donald Trump everything got more expensive,” one Yes side ad says. “He slapped tariffs on everything — you’re paying for it.”
“In terms of the overall impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, I think people are becoming clearly aware of who’s driving that based on this administration,” said Rodriguez. “Those issues are front and center. And we’re making the case on why we need to respond.”
