Tropical Storm Erin is expected to begin strengthening Wednesday, Aug. 13.
The storm is forecast to become a hurricane by Aug. 14 or 15 and a Category 3 storm with 115-mph winds by Sunday, Aug. 17, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A major hurricane is one that’s a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
What impact Erin will have on Florida and the east coast of the United States is known at this time.
“There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Officials are encouraging residents to monitor the storm closely and to make sure they’re prepared.
➤ Don’t have a hurricane supply kit? From the basics to the extras, here’s what you need
Where is Tropical Storm Erin going?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ How often has Florida been impacted, threatened by August hurricanes? We took a look back
Track all active Atlantic storms and disturbances
What should you do now to prepare for hurricane season?
Be prepared before there’s a storm coming.
Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching while shelves are full stocked and you aren’t battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time.
➤ Don’t have a hurricane supply kit? From the basics to the extras, here’s what you need
“It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community,” the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X. “Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint.”
On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators.
➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free
Florida weather radar for Aug. 13, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
Hurricane season’s ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
What’s next?
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models, path
