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Tropical Storm Jerry spaghetti models, path. Will it strengthen, stay away from Florida?

Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
Last updated: October 10, 2025 11:09 am
Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
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Tropical Storm Jerry weakened overnight but continues to bring heavy rain to the Leeward Islands Friday, Oct. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Little change in strength is expected today as the storm faces strong wind shear, but “modest” strengthening is possible over the weekend, forecasters said.

➤ Track Tropical Storm Jerry

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Jerry is no longer predicted to become a hurricane, the Hurricane Center said.

Current models show Jerry taking a path similar to other hurricanes this year, moving north and then taking a sharp turn to the east and staying away from Florida and the U.S. East Coast.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Jerry. See expected path

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

➤ Track Tropical Storm Jerry

See latest satellite photos of Tropical Storm Jerry, graphics showing expected impacts

Where is Tropical Storm Jerry and where is it going?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

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NWS weather radar shows conditions, storms impacting Florida

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This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Spaghetti models Tropical Storm Jerry, tracker, path. Florida impacts

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