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Tropical Storm Lorenzo spaghetti models, path. Will it strengthen, stay away from Florida?

Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
Last updated: October 13, 2025 12:05 pm
Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
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As a powerful nor’easter pounds the east coast of the United States, Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed Oct. 13 in the central Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center said models vary on how strong Lorenzo could get, ranging from a weak tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane.

➤Track Tropical Storm Lorenzo

➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location

Current models show Lorenzo curving north into the Atlantic before turning east toward Africa or Portugal.

Lorenzo is the 12th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Lorenzo. See expected path

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

➤ Track Tropical Storm Lorenzo

Where is Tropical Storm Lorenzo and how strong could it get?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

Will Tropical Storm Lorenzo impact Florida?

Almost all models show Tropical Storm Lorenzo curving north and then east, staying far away from Florida and the U.S. east coast.

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NWS weather radar shows conditions in and around Florida

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This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Spaghetti models Tropical Storm Lorenzo, tracker, path. Florida impacts

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TAGGED:east coast of the United StatesNational Hurricane CenterSpaghetti modelsStorm Lorenzotropical storm
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