Gasoline prices are down at the pump across the country — and President Donald Trump wants America to know he’s responsible for it.
“Every price is down. The biggest price is energy. We’re at almost $2 for gasoline,” Trump told reporters on Thursday, just days after Democrats romped to victory in Virginia and New Jersey in part over voter dissatisfaction with pocketbook issues. (Nationwide, gasoline price averages are approximately $3.08 per gallon, according to AAA.)
And in late October, the White House celebrated what it called a four-year low for gas prices, chalking it up to Trump’s policies.
Indeed, even as inflation rises, Americans are paying a few cents less at the pump than they were a year ago, according to AAA. And the national average gas price may well dip below $3 before the end of the year — a mark that former President Joe Biden failed to achieve for most of his presidency.
“There is no disputing the fact that President Trump’s energy dominance agenda is the reason Americans are paying less at the gas pump,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement. “President Trump has rolled back Biden’s burdensome regulations which has allowed oil and gas companies to ‘DRILL, BABY, DRILL’ to capitalize on the liquid gold under our feet.”
U.S. oil companies’ output is indeed forecast to surpass 2024’s record this year — and is expected to continue growing through 2026.
And James Blair, the former political director for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and the RNC, told POLITICO in an interview with “The Conversation,” airing today, that Americans can expect to continue to see gas prices fall. “We think a year from now, they’re going to continue to come down,” said Blair, who serves as White House deputy chief of staff.
But industry analysts are mixed on how much credit Trump deserves for bringing down prices at the pump, which are largely driven by the global price of crude oil.
“Any president’s ability to affect the price of crude oil is usually very limited,” said Bob McNally, who advised former President George W. Bush on energy policy and is now president of Rapidan Energy Group. When it comes to Trump’s claims, McNally said, “I would say he could claim an assist, not a total responsibility, for lower oil prices.”
The price of crude has fallen by roughly 25 percent since Trump took office, mainly driven by OPEC+ countries boosting production in an already amply-supplied market. Cartel members agreed to another production hike on Sunday, though they said they would hold off on further increases planned for early next year.
Other than a brief mention at his Davos speech in January, Trump has done little publicly to push OPEC to drive prices down, McNally noted. Trump also held off on major sanctions on oil-producing nations like Russia until last month, helping to avert price spikes.
Amy Jaffe, a leading energy expert and professor at New York University, agreed that the White House typically doesn’t have much sway over oil prices, but argued that Trump’s efforts to solve global conflicts may make it the “exception.”
“One of the things that had the price of oil high was geopolitical conflict, especially in the Middle East,” Jaffe said. “The fact that the Trump administration did manage to get a deescalation to that conflict … takes some of the geopolitical premium out of the price of oil. You have to give them credit for that.”
Jason Bordoff, the director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said Trump’s policies seeking to increase domestic energy production “have so far yielded modest, if any, results.” The biggest factor driving down prices, he said, was “the supply coming from other parts of the world, not the United States.”
In the U.S. oil patch, the historic production levels helping to keep gas prices down may be in spite of some of Trump’s policies. Oil executives have cited Trump’s tariffs and the ensuing economic uncertainty in deciding to lay off workers and pull oil drilling rigs back — even as the administration opens new areas for leasing and deregulates the industry.
“His ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ policy — it’s not law, it does not compel oil companies to raise production,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “In fact, with oil prices relatively low, they may end up doing the counter of that.”
But even with some respite at the pump, Americans are increasingly getting pinched by a different type of energy costs: rising utility bills. Trump pledged on the campaign to halve Americans’ electric bills, but electricity prices are up 5.1 percent from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
The Trump administration worked to roll back wind and solar power, which provide the cheapest electricity in many states. It’s also pushed the construction of artificial intelligence data centers that are driving up utility bills in some parts of the country.
Even Trump’s energy secretary recently acknowledged to POLITICO that rising electricity costs could be a political liability for Republicans in next year’s midterms.
The governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey this week showcased this point, as Democratic governor-elects Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill highlighted energy affordability throughout their campaigns.
“Electricity is the new gasoline. It’s become highly political,” Jaffe said.
