The Trump administration’s rollback of wind, solar, and electric vehicle policies, coupled with a push for more fossil fuel production, could slash the pace of US decarbonization by more than half over the next 15 years, a new report found.
Although greenhouse gas emissions aren’t projected to rise over the next decade, Rhodium Group found that the pace of cuts is slowing sharply, and what were once worst-case projections under former US President Joe Biden are now best-case under President Donald Trump. In last year’s report, the group projected that US emissions would fall by between 38%-56% by 2035. This year, Rhodium expects only a 26%-35% decline by 2035. The gap between both projections is roughly equivalent to the emissions from California, Florida, and Michigan combined in 2024.
Driving the reversal are Trump’s cuts to renewable energy tax credits, his rollback of environmental regulations as part of his “drill, baby, drill” agenda, as well as soaring electricity demand from AI. The first seven months of the current US administration “have seen the most abrupt shift in energy and climate policy in recent memory,” Rhodium analysts wrote.
A chart showing the change in US greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels.
