A new private poll in one of the nation’s top bellwethers shows President Donald Trump’s popularity taking a nosedive and Democrats staking out a lead in local elections — a potential warning sign for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.
Fifty-three percent of likely voters in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, view Trump unfavorably, compared to 42 percent who see him favorably, according to the survey by the Democratic firm Upswing Research & Strategy that was shared first with POLITICO.
Bucks County, a suburb of Philadelphia, is a perennial battleground targeted by candidates for president and statewide office. It was Bucks County where Trump made his famous appearance at a McDonald’s and manned a fry station in the 2024 election. Trump won it by less than 1 percentage point last year after former President Joe Biden narrowly carried it in 2020.
GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick represents a district made up almost entirely of Bucks County. The survey did not ask respondents about Fitzpatrick, who Democrats have tried to unseat in every election since he joined Congress in 2017. He has managed to weather difficult political terrain by cultivating a moderate persona independent from his party. He was one of only two House Republicans to vote against the final passage of Trump’s signature bill this year, but Democrats are hoping to pierce his maverick image in next year’s race.
“It’s clear that there is some backlash against Trump and MAGA Republicans generally,” said Ethan Smith, a founding partner at Upswing Research & Strategy. “The survey also shows that we’re probably entering a period of Democratic enthusiasm. We can tell just based on response rates that Democrats are really eager to participate in the election.”
The poll of Bucks County voters also underscores the uphill battle that Republican Stacy Garrity faces as she takes on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Shapiro, who hails from the voter-rich Philly suburbs, has a 55 percent favorable rating in the survey (27 percent view him unfavorably). And it’s not just Democrats who favor the incumbent governor. Nearly a quarter of GOP voters in the poll viewed Shapiro favorably.
Upswing Research & Strategy conducted the poll on behalf of the Democratic PAC Bucks United, the coordinated campaign for the county party and local candidates for district attorney, sheriff and other row offices.
The survey also found that Joe Khan, the Democratic nominee for D.A. in Bucks County, led Republican incumbent Jennifer Schorn in the survey 49 percent-43 percent with 8 percent of likely voters undecided. Danny Ceisler, the Democratic contender for sheriff, was likewise ahead of GOP incumbent Fred Harran 48 percent to 43 percent with 9 percent undecided.
Trump’s approval rating is down from a survey completed last September by the same pollster, which found 50 percent of likely voters in Bucks County viewed him unfavorably and 45 percent saw him favorably.
The August poll of 501 likely voters in Bucks County was completed from Aug. 5 to 10, using calls to landlines and cell phones as well as text-to-Web. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
