Nov. 4 (UPI) — The rise of global temperatures has slowed only slightly over the past year and poses possible climate risks and damage, according to a U.N. Environment Program assessment released Tuesday.
The U.N.’s “Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target” says global warming projections for the 21st century have lowered slightly to between 2.3 degrees to 2.5 degrees Celsius, based on nationally determined contributions, according to the U.N. report.
The target is an average global temperature rise of not more than 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, which the U.N. report says is unlikely.
“A temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable — starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s,” said U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a statement.
“The path to a livable future gets steeper by the day,” Guterres said. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up.”
The predicted temperature rise is slightly less than last year’s predicted rise of between 2.6 degrees and 2.8 degrees Celsius from the 2024 UNEP report.
Part of the improvement from a year ago is due to changes in how the warming projections are done, which lowered the assessments by 0.1 degrees, according to the UNEP report.
The changes in methodology also mean virtually little change occurred over the past year and could result in a total temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius throughout the 21st century.
The upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement will cancel out any recent improvements, and less than a third of countries that remain in the accord have submitted their respective nationally determined contributions to greenhouse gas emissions.
U.N. officials say greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 55% from 2019 levels by 2035 to attain the Paris Agreement’s goal of halting global temperatures from rising more than a 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
A 35% reduction would limit warming to no more than 2 degrees, according to the U.N. report.
Since the Paris Agreement was adopted 10 years ago, the projected rise in average global temperatures has fallen from between 3 and 3.5 degrees Celsius.
“The required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available,” according to the UNEP report.
Such technologies include wind and solar energy developments.
