HALIFAX — Ukraine’s allies are still trying to figure out how seriously to take the U.S. threat to halt intelligence-sharing with Kyiv if it does not agree to a proposed peace plan — but some said Saturday they’re thinking through how to patch shortfalls.
“U.S. capability is unique. That’s absolutely clear and irreplaceable, even in a NATO context,” said James Appathurai, interim head of NATO’s DIANA defense innovation program. However, he added, “there are commercial options available to any country that were not available or not thought of even a few years ago.”
He pointed to satellite imagery in particular as an area where commercial products could provide a boost on the battlefield to Ukraine. Real-time satellite imagery has been key to Ukraine’s defense against Moscow, giving its military the ability to anticipate incoming Russian attacks and target their own strikes.
Appathurai spoke to POLITICO on the sidelines of the Halifax International Security Forum, an annual gathering of defense officials and national security professionals in Nova Scotia.
He pointed to one alternative to U.S. providers in the form of the Finnish space company ICEYE, which was formed to monitor ice from outer space but now provides mobile Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance. It has sold satellites to the militaries of Poland and the Netherlands, along with Finland’s armed forcesand those of Portugal. It also provides some data to Ukraine already.
That said, retooling and reorienting technology can be a slow and expensive process, and Ukraine’s needs are immediate.
ICEYE, for example, is still coming into its own as a defense contractor. Its VP for missions, Joost Elstak, told DefenseNews this month that it had between five and 10 sovereign satellites in orbit and expected to launch another 10 to 15 within the next two years.
He said European interest in his company soared after President Donald Trump paused sharing space intelligence with Ukraine in March of this year. Elon Musk’s threats to cut Ukraine off from his Starlink satellite internet service added to the appeal of alternatives.
Andrius Kubilius, the European Commissioner for Defence and Space, told reporters at Halifax that Europe already has some top-performing satellite offerings, including the Galileo global navigation satellite system and the Copernicus weather observation system.
However, he said, “there are some systems where we are being a little bit behind,” and named Starlink. A European alternative to the service, IRIS², is scheduled to go online in 2030. In the meantime, the EU is working on integrating the national assets of its member countries, he said, but voiced confidence in the bloc’s ability to support Ukraine.
“Ukraine, if they will decide that they want to continue, they will continue,” Kubilius said.
James Bezan, a Conservative member of Canada’s House of Commons and shadow defense minister of defense, argued that his country could help fill in some gaps.
He said Ottawa has previously shared RADARSAT-2 images with Ukraine “that helped them see what was happening at the border and beyond.” He added that Canada could resume those images if the U.S. walks away, “but there is other intelligence that the U.S. gathers, that they have access to that even within NATO and the Five Eyes may not necessarily be available to us, and if that gets removed from Ukraine, that would be problematic.”
In particular, he pointed to intelligence collected on the ground.
Canada’s Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Jennie Carignan said in an interview that without U.S. military assistance, “there’s various gaps, long-range precision, like you have to be able to strike within Russia, there is no doubt about that.” She said she could imagine finding ways to meet Ukraine’s needs through alternatives. “Drones can certainly pick up some of that and in other ways. So that’s what I mean by — no, that those capabilities might not be available anymore, but we would have to adjust and turn towards something else.”
No American military brass attended Halifax, leaving European and NATO officials to speculate as to how concrete the threat from the Trump administration is, or whether Washington is waiting for a counteroffer. On Saturday evening, the EU, UK, France and Germany secured seats at the table at upcoming talks on Trump’s peace plan, which will likely be held in Geneva.
Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who was among a handful of Republican lawmakers attending, said he hoped Trump’s threat was part of a negotiating parlay.
“As long as there’s a response back, I’m hopeful that he will recognize that this is way too important to simply say, one, and done,” Rounds said.
Mike Blanchfield and Joe Gould contributed to this report.
