Deep underneath the wreckage of Rafah, southern Gaza, the war is not over.
Scores of Hamas militants, split up into independent cells, are trapped in tunnels underground behind Israeli lines, as mediators try to find a solution that doesn’t collapse the month-old ceasefire in Gaza.
The issue of how to deal with up to 200 Hamas militants in Israeli-occupied territory in Gaza, is more than just a tactical problem for Israel’s military. It is a sensitive diplomatic matter with no clear way out.
These cells – and it’s unclear exactly how many there are or their precise locations – have fortified themselves in these tunnels since the ceasefire divided Gaza along the so-called yellow line one month ago: Israel occupies territory east of the line while Hamas reasserts power west of it.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear he has no intention of simply letting the Hamas cells walk out of the tunnels and return to the Hamas-controlled part of Gaza. Hamas has said its militants will never turn themselves in and hand over their weapons.
The Trump administration is pushing Israel to make progress towards some sort of viable solution, according to two Israeli sources, and Trump’s son-in-law – US envoy Jared Kushner – brought up the issue with Netanyahu in meetings earlier this week.
“The Americans want to move ahead to the next phase and close the Rafah prisoners file,” one of the sources said.
The second phase of the ceasefire involves the creation of an international security force in Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas, and the further withdrawal of Israeli forces. Every element requires challenging negotiations with multiple countries, And the Hamas militants in Gaza are one more piece of an increasingly difficult diplomatic puzzle.
One idea was to deport the militants to a third country, with Turkey considered a possible option, the other source said. But no such solution has materialized.
Throughout the week, Netanyahu’s office issued several denials regarding various reports about the release of what Israel sees as terror cells. “The prime minister did not commit to the Americans to release the prisoners from Rafah,” a senior Israeli official said in statement on Tuesday, adding a few hours later that “contrary to reports, no agreed-upon solution exists.”
Without a resolution, the cells are a ticking time-bomb. With little or no access to food and water, the Hamas militants are left with a simple choice: surrender or fight. Muhammad Shehada, a Gaza expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations, previously told CNN that “Hamas doesn’t even know how many are there that are still alive.”
And the impasse has already proven a threat to the overall ceasefire that took effect on October 10.
It is likely that these isolated cells – removed from Hamas command and control – were responsible for recent attacks on Israeli forces that prompted massive Israeli retaliation and twice threatened the ceasefire.
On October 19, after two Israeli soldiers were killed in Rafah, Israel unleashed strikes that killed at least 44 Palestinians. Just over a week later, Israeli strikes killed more than 100 Palestinians, including dozens of children, after another Israeli soldier was killed in Rafah.
The ceasefire in Gaza has been holding but Israel carried out a wave of strikes after its forces were attacked. – Bashar Taleb/AFP/Getty Images
In the current environment – with diplomacy stuck between the first and second phases of the ceasefire – neither Israel nor Hamas is budging.
On Sunday, Hamas’ military wing issued a statement saying that “there is no such term as surrounding or handing oneself over to the enemy.” The Al Qassam Brigades said, “We place the mediators before their responsibilities, and they must find a solution to ensure the continuation of the ceasefire.”
In the absence of a solution, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have clashed with these Hamas cells underground. Twice within just a few hours on Wednesday, the IDF said its troops were operating to “dismantle underground infrastructure” when they identified “four terrorists” in areas occupied by Israel. In both cases, Israeli troops opened fire.
The IDF said the actions were in accordance with the US-brokered ceasefire agreement, which allows for the destruction of military and tunnel infrastructure in Gaza. But Hamas views them as a clear violation of the 20-point plan.
Netanyahu has already come under pressure from Israel’s right-wing to refuse any agreement that will grant the militants safe passage to Hamas-controlled territory. On Tuesday, former Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said on X, “For the terrorists who murdered IDF soldiers after the ceasefire was declared, there must be only two options: surrender and imprisonment or death.”
That political pressure limits Netanyahu’s realistic options for an acceptable solution, knowing he will face criticism if he is perceived to be giving into Hamas’ demands.
According to the US plan, the Hamas militants could be granted amnesty if they give up their weapons and commit to “peaceful co-existence.”
The issue of the underground militants is unlikely to derail the entire ceasefire effort on its own – and the US is investing tremendous effort and political capital in making sure the plan moves forward – but it is one more difficult roadblock for the mediators as they try to sustain the truce.
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