Some 160 states have signed up to recognize a Palestinian state. In the last week, the United Kingdom, France, Canada and Australia have done so, but the prospect of it becoming a reality amid US opposition and Israeli resistance is at best a distant one.
What does recognizing a Palestinian state mean in reality; is it just a gesture?
In reality, the recognition of a Palestinian state is a diplomatic declaration aimed at rescuing the vision of a two-state solution that would settle decades of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said this weekend that it was the path toward creating a viable Palestinian state co-existing with a secure Israel. But he and other leaders admit that such a vision is at the moment very distant in the face of Israel’s adamant refusal to accept any form of Palestinian statehood.
Why are countries doing this now?
It is largely a reaction to events in Gaza and the ongoing Israeli military campaign to push the territory’s civilian population into an ever-shrinking patch of land. French President Emmanuel Macron said in July his urgent priority was to end the conflict in Gaza and to break the cycle of violence. “We must finally build the State of Palestine, ensure its viability and enable it, by accepting its demilitarisation and fully recognising Israel, to contribute to the security of all in the Middle East,” he said.
There are also internal dynamics in several European countries, where there have been large pro-Palestinian rallies and where public opinion has swung against Israel in light of the destruction and starvation in Gaza. Several of these countries also have large Muslim populations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday: “It really is them responding to their own domestic politics, you know, protesters in their streets and things like that.”
What is the US position?
Echoing Israel’s own position, the Trump administration has said that recognizing a Palestinian state rewards terrorism – a position repeated by US President Donald Trump himself at the UN General Assembly. Rubio said in July that Macron’s decision was “reckless” and “serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace. It is a slap in the face to the victims of October 7th,” he said. The US has been more supportive than many western governments of Israel’s campaign in Gaza and has not publicly opposed Israeli plans to expand settlements in the occupied West Bank. It would veto any attempt at the UN Security Council to recognize a Palestinian state.
US President Donald Trump addresses the 80th United Nations General Assembly, in New York City, New York, on Tuesday. – Alexander Drago/Reuters
What conditions are some countries placing?
European governments and others say that recognition is part of a longer-term process, which will include reform of the Palestinian Authority and fresh elections no later than a year after a ceasefire in Gaza. When it joined moves to recognize a Palestinian state, Australia noted that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas had restated recognition of Israel’s right to exist and made “commitments to hold democratic elections and enact significant reform to finance, governance and education.” Governments recognizing a Palestinian state have said Hamas must have no role in it. A declaration by 27 states in July, including many in the Arab world, said that “Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority, with international engagement and support, in line with the objective of a sovereign and independent Palestinian State.” Starmer and others have said that a Palestinian state must be demilitarized.
Who would lead it?
One of many unknowns. Abbas, the current president of the Palestinian Authority, is 89 years old. In April he named confidant Hussein al-Sheikh as his deputy and likely successor, marking the first time he has ever had an official number two. Sheikh, born in 1960, is a veteran of Fatah, the main PLO faction which was founded by Yasser Arafat. But the PA has lost support among Palestinians due to widespread corruption and a perception that it is ineffective in the face of growing Israeli incursions in the West Bank. Opinion polls show that despite more than 20 years in Israeli jails, 66-year-old Marwan Barghouti is the most popular figure among Palestinians. But Israel has vowed to keep him in prison. He was convicted of planning attacks that led to five Israeli civilians being killed.
Does it help achieve a two-state solution?
Starmer admitted over the weekend that a two-state solution hung by a thread. “Hope of a two-state solution is fading, but we cannot let that light go out,” he said. The US is the only government capable of influencing Israel to rethink and there are no signs that it intends to. Israel’s occupation of much of Gaza and its discussions about plans to extend sovereignty over parts of the West Bank through annexation mean that facts on the ground render a two-state solution an even more distant prospect. Those plans are being pushed hard by far-right ministers in Israel’s coalition, even as some 160 countries back the creation of an independent Palestine.
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