World leaders were quick to criticise Israel for its attack in Qatar on Tuesday, targeting Hamas political leaders discussing a ceasefire in Gaza.
United States President Donald Trump, typically one of Israel’s most vocal supporters, said he was “very unhappy about every aspect” of the strike. Germany, long a consistent backer of Israel, declared the attack “unacceptable” and a violation of Qatar’s sovereignty. And India, which, under its nationalist leader Narendra Modi, has largely supported Israel, warned of “escalation” and said it was “deeply concerned”.
But the rhetorical condemnation of Israel’s attack may not translate into meaningful policy shifts. Israel has continually ignored international law during its war on Gaza, where it has killed more than 64,000 Palestinians, destroyed the enclave, and caused a famine. It has also repeatedly attacked neighbouring countries and rejected any international criticism it has faced.
“One could presume that these strikes would mean that Israeli allies who have been rather cautious in their criticism would change their direction, but this is not particularly likely,” said HA Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Service Institute and Center for American Progress.
“In terms of policy, Israel has been engaged in a massive war of devastation on the Gaza Strip, leading to accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice, and violating the sovereignty of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and Tunisia over the past two years,” Hellyer added. “None of that led to any substantial changes in policy towards the Israeli government from these states, and I don’t expect this to either.”
Global shift
Qatar’s growing diplomatic influence and its strong ties to the US lend extra significance to the Israeli attack, which failed in its mission to kill Hamas leaders, but did kill five lower-ranking Hamas members and a Qatari security officer. However, analysts cautioned that Qatar’s standing with the US might not be enough to shift global policy towards Israel.
“International public opinion is definitely shifting quite rapidly,” said Karim Emile Bitar, a professor of international relations at the Saint Joseph University of Beirut. “However, I think that this shift in public opinion is mostly related to what’s happening in Gaza, the famine and the fact that even leading Israeli intellectuals and scholars are now calling it a genocide.”
Bitar said that the attack on Qatar would most likely lead to a hardening of attitudes towards Israel in the Gulf, rather than elsewhere.
Gulf leaders have already visited Doha in solidarity or are planning to, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani has said that Gulf states were discussing a response to Israel.
For other countries, the attack on Qatar is the latest evidence that Israel is unconcerned with international law, and is creating an increasingly unstable Middle East, which is unpopular among the public in many countries. Their concern about that, weighed against how much they are willing to anger Israel and its chief ally, the US, determines how far they are willing to go in terms of action against Israel.
One of the most notable shifts has been in Europe, where a number of countries – as well as the European Union – have become increasingly critical of Israel, and have begun to threaten sanctions.
Most recently, Spain has imposed a formal arms embargo on Israel and banned ships carrying fuel for Israel’s military from passing through its ports, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested sanctions – including the suspension of the EU-Israel free trade agreement – could be introduced.
The aftermath of Israel’s bombing of Doha, Qatar on Tuesday [AP]
Double standards
But action against Israel from Western countries is still minimal in comparison with the isolation and sanctions placed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
That is despite Israel becoming increasingly unrestrained in committing violence across the Middle East.
On Wednesday, one day after its strike on Qatar and just weeks after assassinating the prime minister of the Houthi rebel government in Yemen, Israel struck the country, including a residential area in the capital, Sanaa, killing at least 35 people. And on two occasions this week, Israel has been accused of launching two drone attacks on the Global Sumud Flotilla, a peaceful mission attempting to break the blockade of Gaza, and currently docked in Tunisia.
That is in addition to its previous attacks on Syria, Lebanon and Iran.
Neither has Israel indicated that it regrets the attack upon Qatar, nor given other states reason to hope that their territory would not be host to similar attacks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has appeared entirely unrepentant, saying of the strike, “Israel initiated it, Israel conducted it, and Israel takes full responsibility.”
Other senior figures went further. Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, who is currently negotiating an investment deal in India, despite its apparent concern over the strikes on Qatar, wrote that the enemies of Israel, whom he referred to as “terrorists”, would “have no immunity from the long arm of Israel anywhere in the world”.
“Israel has crossed red line after red line after red line and nothing has happened,” Rob Geist Pinfold, lecturer in international security at King’s College London said. “Every time it’s crossed the Rubicon, it’s gone right back and done it again.”
“European states can say and do anything they like,” he added, “but at the moment, there just isn’t a sufficient deterrent to stop them striking anywhere they like.”
Trump is key
Geist Pinfold did point to one man who could change the way Israel acts: Donald Trump.
“The only figure that can stop them is Donald Trump,” the academic said.
The US provides billions of dollars in support to Israel, as well as arming it, ensuring it has military superiority over all its neighbours. It also supports Israel diplomatically, ensuring that Security Council resolutions against Israel are rare, and has even sanctioned officials from the International Criminal Court for having the temerity to charge Netanyahu for war crimes.
Trump himself is viewed favourably in Israel for his pro-Israel policies, particularly in his first term, when he recognised Jerusalem – including occupied East Jerusalem – as the capital of Israel.
Many Israeli right-wingers view Trump’s presidency as a perfect opportunity to carry out their goals, such as the annexation of the occupied West Bank. They believe the US will do little to stop them.
And while Trump has rhetorically pushed for a ceasefire deal in Gaza, he has largely backed Israel’s position, and has even suggested the Palestinian enclave be transformed into a “Gaza Riviera”, involving what critics have called the ethnic cleansing of the Strip’s Palestinian population.
The bombing of Qatar, a country Trump visited soon after taking office for his second term this year, is, for the president, a different matter from Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians. However, the White House narrative on Israel’s bombing has already afforded Washington plausible deniability, saying that the US government only found out about the attack at the last minute, and tried to inform Qatar in time.
A real indication of whether the US is frustrated with Israel will be if Trump now pushes his ally to finally agree to a ceasefire deal and end the war in Gaza, as well as its foreign adventurism.
Based on past evidence, that may be unlikely. But if the US does, it has a chance of opening the floodgates and further isolating Israel internationally.
“When it comes to the global picture, the only game changer is the United States,” said Bitar, “and, more specifically, Donald Trump.”
