CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten dismissed Democratic “bedwetting” over the New Jersey gubernatorial race Thursday, proclaiming Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) “in the driver’s seat
Trump-backed GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s run against Sherrill has become one of the most closely watched races after the pair viciously clashed during debates.
In typical fashion, Enten rushed the stats for viewers as he profiled new Quinnipiac polling data released Thursday showing Sherrill ahead by 6 points. Those numbers, he said, showed “it is very clear” that the Democrat has a clean lead.
Breaking it down further, he argued Ciattarelli would need to “win over” some of Kamala Harris’s 2024 voters if he wanted to close the gap.
““Mikie Sherrill leads among the Harris voters by 87 points, according to a recent Fox News poll. And look at how Jack Ciattarelli is doing among Donald Trump voters, he’s leading them by 86 points, which is basically equal to the 87 points. But when you know that Kamala Harris won New Jersey by 6 points, he can’t just be matching this margin, he needs to be eating more into Sherrill’s base than she’s eating into that Donald Trump base that, of course, Jack Ciattarelli is reliant on,” said Enten.
He added: “And simply put, at this moment, Jack Ciattarelli, at least in the polling data that is public, the non-internal polling, is not doing what he needs to do in order to win in November. This does not get him to the promise land.”
Host John Berman then asked: “Okay, what does history tell us?”
Enten offered one “clear nugget” that showed even history is on Sherrill’s side.
“You go back and you look at who was the last Republican to win a gubernatorial race in the great state of New Jersey when there was a Republican president,” he said. “You got to go all the way back, you gotta go 40 years back to Tom Kean, who, of course, was massively popular, was the massively popular incumbent, in order to find the last time that there was a Republican elected governor of New Jersey, when there was a Republican president.”
Enten concluded: “The bottom line is this, Mr. Berman, the polling right now favors Mikie Sherrill, the history favors Mikie Sherrill. That doesn’t mean Jack Ciattarelli can’t win, but it certainly means that at this particular point that Mikie Sherrill is in the driver’s seat.”
Watch above via CNN.
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